The devastating stats behind Rory McIlroy’s opening-round in the Masters

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NCG’s Matt Chivers followed Rory McIlroy through Amen Corner on Thursday as he negotiated Augusta to perfection, until the last four holes. Statistics show mistakes were inevitable on day one for the career grand slam chaser

rory mcilroy first round masters

Those double-bogeys. Those pesky double bogeys.

Ironically, Rory McIlroy carded just the second opening round of his Masters career that didn’t feature a normal bogey, which makes the disastrous turn of events on holes 15 and 17 even tougher to swallow.

The Northern Irishman negotiated Amen Corner so well. The crowd swelled and cheered his every footstep as he sensibly parred holes 11 and 12 with arrowed low irons to the fat parts of each green, followed by a birdie as straightforward as they come on the par-5 13th, despite the painstaking pace of play which required him to wait on nearly every shot in this corner of the golf course.

McIlroy was 4-under in the middle of the 15th fairway and surging to his first sub-70 score on day one of the Masters since 2018 and just his third since his 2009 debut down Magnolia Lane. It was a joy to watch who we all think is a Green Jacket owner-elect.

But as his jaded, heartbroken fans have become accustomed to, not to mention the man himself, McIlroy finished with a level-par 72. Unfortunately, this is what the most popular player in the sport does at Augusta National on day one, and with each concerned look and putt that rolls over the lip, the major grand slam feels inches further from his grasp. This is his 11th attempt at winning all four major trophies.

His approach through the 15th green was fairly inconspicuous, but the crowds’ eyes didn’t leave his ball after his comeback chip rolled, and rolled, and rolled into the drink. A 7 it was. He three-putted the par-4 17th hole for a 6. His gleaming red number on the white Masters leaderboard became a green 0 (level) in a black puff of smoke.

rory mcilroy first round masters

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Rory McIlroy first round Masters: The stats behind the 72

Based on his career at the Masters, McIlroy’s 72 should come as a surprise to no one. Since he came tied for 20th on his debut in 2009, his first-round average is 71.7. He has only broken 70 twice, and he has only broken par twice since 2017.

Long has been the trope that McIlroy can’t put himself in contention down Magnolia Lane from the start, and the numbers support this, even more so when compared with the World No.1 and McIlroy’s main market rival, Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler had made five previous starts at Augusta before 2025 and broke 70 three times – he is a two-time Green Jacket winner, and on day one in 2025, he shot a 68.

Ludvig Aberg has already got one less sub-70 opener at Augusta than McIlroy, and he has played at the Masters twice.

Before McIlroy started his round with Ryder Cup teammate Aberg and Akshay Bhatia, he averaged just over three bogeys per opening round at the Masters and, since 2019, he is 6-over-par on day one. He had only made two double-bogeys in the first round of the April showpiece before this year too – he doubled this tally this year to fall seven shots behind the outstanding Justin Rose, who leads for the fifth time after 18 holes at this event with a 7-under 65.

Key Rory McIlroy Opening Round Stats at the Masters
Average score: 71.7
Average amount of bogeys: 3.25
Combined 6-over in the opening round since 2019
Broken 70 twice in 17 starts at the Masters
First time making two double-bogeys in the opening round
Broken par once in his last seven starts at the Masters

All of this negativity is placed in contrast to the overwhelming promise of McIlroy’s first nine holes. He made the turn in 3-under with birdies on holes 3, 8 and 9 which, according to stats guru Justin Ray, was his best first-nine score of an opening round at the Masters since 2011, when he led by four shots after 54 holes.

In his previous 10 first nines, he was a combined 4-over. There might be several shots and moments the four-time major champion looks back on with regret during his time in this part of Georgia, but surely these blemishes on his otherwise spotless scorecard that hot Thursday afternoon of the 89th Masters will bug him as much as any other.

McIlroy didn’t speak to the media after the first round. What is in McIlroy’s favour, and with no disrespect to former US Open champion Rose, is he’s only four shots behind Scheffler – the main hunter in the pack.

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Do these Rory McIlroy Masters stats mean he’ll never win the Masters? Can Rory McIlroy still win the Masters in 2025? Tell us on X!

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About the author

Matt Chivers
Matt Chivers

Matt has been playing golf since the age of 13 and was largely inspired to take up the game by countless family members who played golf during his childhood.

Matt is a member at Royal Cinque Ports in Deal playing off a 5 handicap, just a pitching wedge away from his hometown of Dover where he went to school and grew up. He has previously been a member at Etchinghill and Walmer and Kingsdown in Kent.

Having studied history at the University of Liverpool, Matt went on to pass his NCTJ Exams in Manchester a year later to fulfil his lifelong ambition of becoming a journalist. He picked up work experience along the way at places such as the Racing Post, the Independent, Sportsbeat and the Lancashire Evening Post.

Matt joined NCG in February 2023 and is the website’s main source of tour news, features and opinion. He has reported live from events such as the Masters, The Open, the Ryder Cup and The Players Championship, having also interviewed and spoken to many of the biggest names in the sport.

Consuming tour golf on what is a 24/7 basis, you can come to Matt for informed views on the game and the latest updates on the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, LPGA Tour, Ladies European Tour and LIV Golf.

What’s in Matt’s bag: Cleveland HiBore XL Driver driver, Cobra LTDx 3-wood, Benross BR-Pro irons, Ping Glide 4.0 wedges, Odyssey putter.

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