I revel in trying to pick out the winner of the Claret Jug as much as you, but I also overthink it as much as you.
Landing on Ludvig Aberg, Louis Oosthuizen and Robert MacIntyre in 2024 at Troon, my shot at bragging to my friends and work colleagues about picking the winning ticket in golf’s links lottery was gone after day one.
The former pair, possibly a generational talent and a previous Open champion with a dynamite short game, bowed out at the halfway stage, while MacIntyre valiantly battled on without threatening the top of the leaderboard.
But it’s no surprise to me that the British player, the man accustomed to horrific weather and howling wind, muscled his way into the weekend, much like he did on his way to victory at the Genesis Scottish Open the week before.
There is something gritty about participants from these Isles. Look at Dan Brown. A final qualifier from West Lancs, a former English amateur champion nine years ago at Ganton in Yorkshire.
Their records are worlds apart, but Brown and the World No.1, Masters champion Scottie Scheffler were equal on the firm fairways of South Ayrshire as they played together on Sunday in 2024. He wasn’t playing Scheffler, he was playing the course and as dominant and talented as the Texan is, he had a wealth of UK talent surrounding him who have been there and done it when the conditions are perilous.
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Matthew Jordan flew the flag for Merseyside in 2023, finishing in a tie for 10th in the rotten rain at Hoylake where he is a member. I can tell you he has played shots throughout his lifetime at Royal Liverpool that Scheffler, Sam Burns and Xander Schauffele wouldn’t have seen or imagined before.
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What about Joe Dean? He’d played in the Boys and Men’s Home Internationals before the 2024 Open, which has been played on tracks like Lahinch, Royal Portrush, Hillside and Royal Dornoch. He won the English Amateur at Alwoodley in 2015 too, adding to his glittering career on the hardy surfaces of the UK.
Neither of these guys won. Xander Schauffele won and obviously with hindsight, we all should’ve backed him. What I am emphasising is perhaps prioritising the eye test and removing stats from the equation for a moment to get some value in your betting. Let’s consider those who have got to where they are through playing golf in conditions. Let’s consider DP World Tour stars as well as PGA Tour stars, too.
Thriston Lawrence, Alex Noren, Daniel Hillier, Shubhankar Sharma, Antoine Rozner, Thomas Detry, Dean Burmester, Lucas Herbert and Min Woo Lee all performed much, much better in the last few years than my miserable picks in 2024.
Heading to the Republic of Ireland for a moment, you had Shane Lowry in the thick of contention at Troon. A former Open champion, the two-time European Ryder Cupper’s game is all about feel and touch. He won the Irish Open as an amateur and he won the European Amateur Team Championships in 2007 and 2008 for a combined Irish team, with the former being at Western Gailes, a neighbour of Troon.
Lowry has gone on in a way Dean, Brown and Jordan haven’t yet, but they have the pedigree. They know the time of day when navigating a links course, like so many players from the home nations do. They are seaside specialists and they can identify the conditions and embrace them.
This isn’t to say American players, or players from other shores even, can’t too. Look at Scheffler, Schauffele, and Billy Horschel last year. Look at Collin Morikawa in 2021. But The Open is an equaliser. A Yorkshireman who had never played in a major was in the same group as the game’s most dominant player, without looking out of place, and it was all because of the location and nature of the course.
2023’s top-20 featured Jordan, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton and Laurie Canter. Fleetwood, Hatton and Matt Fitzpatrick were in similar positions in 2022 at St Andrews. MacIntyre, Paul Casey and Aaron Rai played well at Royal St. George’s in 2021.
The majority of these players haven’t won The Open and may never. But their chances are enhanced and their value in the markets is exceptional on courses from where they’ve built from the ground up.
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