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US Open betting tips

Who's going to survive Los Angeles Country Club for major glory? Oddschecker's Tom Jacobs has made his picks to win at the US Open

The PGA Tour stars head to Los Angeles Country Club to take on the latest US Open test this week.

The likes of Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Collin Morikawa are fancied to go close to winning the US Open for another major victory, but which other PGA Tour champions will challenge?

Scroll down for my 2023 US Open betting tips.

US Open preview

Venue: Los Angeles Country Club, Los Angeles, California

Date: June 15-18, 2023

Course stats: Par 70; 7,421 yards

Course summary: George C. Thomas designed the North Course at LACC as we see it today. Gil Hanse restored the design in 2010 and is set to be wider than most other US Open venues. The par 3s are very exciting and this is the first Bermuda grass US Open since 2005 at Pinehurst.

Defending champion: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6)

us open betting

2023 US Open betting tips

Viktor Hovland @ 20/1

You need to go to the five places section of the US Open market, to get 20-1, but I don’t mind sacrificing the places, because Hovland is going to win.

I was on Hovland at the PGA Championship based on the fact he was in the final group at St. Andrews and the penultimate group at Augusta. Add another final group appearance at the PGA Championship, where he eventually finished T2 and two shots back of Koepka, and all I am seeing is a player learning on the job, and doing a brilliant job of improving along the way.

I honestly believe if he was in contention with anyone other than Koepka on Sunday, he’d have won the 2023 PGA Championship, and now I think he can get his major that his play and now experience so richly deserves.

Personally, I like the parallels you can draw between Hovland’s run into this US Open and Rahm’s run in at the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines. Rahm had finished T7 at the 2020 November Masters, T5 at the 2021 April Masters, T8 at the 2021 PGA Championship, and then should have won the Memorial, where he was pulled off the course with a six-shot lead after the third round. Hovland has finished T4 at the 2022 Open Championship, T7 at the 2023 Masters, T2 at the 2023 PGA Championship, and WON the Memorial two weeks ago. Form lines don’t get much better.

The Norwegian Prince (yes, I am lobbying for him to be called that from now on) has finished T12 and T13 in the US Open in the past. The 2019 renewal was in California, where he finished as the Low Amateur in T12 at Pebble Beach and his T13 at the 2020 US Open came at Winged Foot, a Gil Hanse re-design. Who re-designed Los Angeles Country Club..? Gil Hanse!

Bet on Hovland and enjoy the win.

Tyrrell Hatton @ 30/1

If anyone is due a win, it is Tyrrell Hatton who finished T3 last week, one shot outside of the playoff. That was largely down to a double bogey in the final round, but also down to his lackluster moving day in round three, but eventually, Hatton is going to turn this good form into a win, and I see no reason why it won’t be in a major championship.

Hatton ranks T3 in SG Total, and also ranks T11 or better in SG Off the Tee, SG Putting and SG Tee to Green. Also 17th in SG Approach, Hatton is playing like a top 10 player in the world but is priced behind 12 players in the market. I like the value even with the price drop.

The Englishman finished T15 in his last major at the PGA Championship, despite opening with a round of 77, and I see little reason as to why he couldn’t improve further this week and really get in contention for his first major title.

This is a great event for first-time major winners, and Hatton joins the likes of Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, and Xander Schauffele as elite-level golfers who need to really get in the mix for a major championship on Sunday. I’ll take the guy who’s the longest price of that group to do it.

Justin Rose @ 35/1

Yes, at some point there probably needs to be an intervention, as I have backed Justin Rose in the first three majors of the year, but it’s not my fault he keeps turning up and playing good golf.

He was T2 going into the final round last week and just two strokes back, and whilst his slide to 8th was disappointing, I am confident in an event where par means more, and the final round doesn’t turn into a birdie-fest, he will perform better.

9th going into the final round at Augusta, Rose finished 16th there, and 5th going into the final round at the PGA Championship, Rose finished T9. Clearly, the issue is that he’s slipping in the final round, and that is of course a concern, but a player of his class and experience can put that right on any given Sunday, and I can see that being the case here at Los Angeles Country Club.

A former US Open winner who’s playing his best stuff in years and has gained strokes on Approach in 11-straight events… Yeah, I am betting on Rose once again.

Bryson DeChambeau @ 40/1

Bryson is my favorite amongst the longer shots this week and at 40/1 I still think there is tremendous value in the California native.

DeChambeau is a three-time winner on Gil Hanse re-designs, including the 2020 US Open. Whilst all of those came on the East Coast, he did play well for 54 holes in his US Open defence at the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines, where he was 4th going into Sunday. Add that to this 4th place finish at Harding Park at the PGA Championship, and you have two standout performances in Californian majors from Bryson, plus a player that loves this week’s architect.

At the PGA Championship Bryson was something close to his brilliant best, as he ranked 2nd in Total Driving, thanks to leading the field in Distance and ranking 9th in Accuracy. That accuracy was most eye-catching, as was the fact he was 2nd in Greens in Regulation and 15th in SG Approach, which suggests even beyond the driver, his game was in good shape.

He was a marginal gainer on the Greens in Oak Hill and whilst his chipping could have been better, he ultimately looked like the full package once again, and if that is the case, then 40/1 is extremely good value on an elite talent like DeChambeau. Even when dropping from the 125/1 he was at the PGA Championship to the 40/1 he is this week, Bryson still remains value in my eyes

Sepp Straka @ 250/1

Sepp Straka just pipped the likes of Denny McCarthy and Patrick Rodgers as the longshot play of the week for me, but the Austrian’s supreme play and his winning experience on the PGA Tour just edged it for me.

Straka ranked 2nd in the field in SG Approach at the PGA Championship, gaining 9.766 strokes on the field that week, and two weeks later he ranked 4th at the Memorial, where he gained another 6.390 strokes on the field. This means he’s been 2nd and 4th in approach in recent weeks, and he’s also gained off the tee in his last four straight-made cuts. This is the sort of ball striking that led him to a career year in 2022, where he won at the Honda Classic and lost two playoffs at the FedEx St Jude to Will Zalatoris, and the Sanderson Farms at the start of this new season to Mackenzie Hughes.

The Austrian struggled after that playoff loss to Mackenzie Hughes until he finished T5 in his title defense at the Honda Classic, and then inside the top 10 again at the PGA Championship, where he was T7. That T7 finish in his most recent major start was the best of his career to date, and that adds to the T28 he posted on his US Open debut in 2019. Add two made cuts from two at Augusta, and 3/3 in the PGA Championship, and it’s clear Straka knows what it takes to make the weekend at a major. What he does from then on remains to be seen, but at 250-1 I will roll the dice with a player that could have won three events in 2022, and has finished T7, T29, and T16 in his last three starts, ranking amongst the best in his field with his irons in two of those starts

NOW READ: 2023 US Open field

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