It’s always good to be back at Shinnecock Hills for the US Open – one of America’s great golf courses and great championship tests.
It can be linksy in appearance with flat parts, and also dramatic undulations. This will be the sixth time the US Open has visited Southampton on Long Island, and the first since Brooks Koepka sealed back-to-back titles in 2018.
The golf course is a little different now. The USGA have widened the fairways a touch, so while no tee shot is easy at this New York masterpiece, there could be more opportunity for the players to open their shoulders and look for a position on the short grass.
The green complexes, bunkers and run-offs will be tough to negotiate. A fascinating affair is on the cards, all in all. Scottie Scheffler is having his first tilt at the career grand slam, Rory McIlroy has superb recent US Open form, and Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton are set to lead the LIV charge.
I’ve poked around the markets for a while and, statistically and in the form book, there are many players I think are capable of winning the penultimate major on the men’s calendar.
Chris Gotterup has the shots and the creativity to thrive, while Sam Burns and Wyndham Clark certainly tick some boxes. McIlroy came second twice in the last three years, and made the top 10 in six of the last seven editions. All of these players are worth your time, and possibly even defending champion J.J. Spaun, who has a win on the PGA Tour this year.
Let’s get stuck into who we think has a great chance of winning the US Open at Shinnecock Hills in 2026, and some US Open golf betting odds.
ALSO: US Open field: Who is playing?
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US Open betting 2026
Venue: Shinnecock Hills
Date: June 18-21, 2026
Course stats: Par 70, 7,440 yards
Defending champion: J.J. Spaun (-1)
Tommy Fleetwood @ 18/1
We have been here before, I get it. But logic suggests that the level of golf that Tommy Fleetwood continues to play on the PGA Tour suggests he will win a major. He won for the first time on the PGA Tour in 2025 at the Tour Championship, so we have at least skipped over that hurdle.
As much as there is heart involved in this selection, there are also numbers and form behind it, too. His scrambling and putting statistics are extremely solid in 2026. He is fifth in scrambling on the PGA Tour, second in scrambling from the rough, 17th in putts per round and fifth in strokes gained around the greens.
Around the greens at Shinnecock is where the tournament could be won and lost, and that is why I put so much credit in this particular bank. But, while I don’t want to drown you in numbers, the Englishman’s form is good, too.
He was in the top 10 at Pebble Beach, Riviera and Sawgrass this season. He was tied for fourth at the Memorial two weeks ago, and had a good pipe cleaner in Canada last week as well. The memories from last time at Shinnecock simply have to help, too.
Fleetwood shot an astonishing 63 in the final round to finish second, one shot behind Brooks Koepka. He is experiencing some of the best form of his career, and you can’t help but think this golf course, and the upcoming Open Championship at his native Royal Birkdale are great chances for him to finally break his major duck.
ALSO: Was Rory McIlroy right to leave so abruptly after blowing the US Open?
Russell Henley @ 33/1
The reasons to side with Russell Henley in betting become clearer by the week. He is an incredibly solid player, and one who is beginning to find his feet at the majors.
He came tied for third at the Masters in April, and in his last three US Open appearances, he has come tied for 10th, tied for seventh and tied for 14th. Also, he has come tied for 10th and tied for fifth in his last two Open Championship appearances.
His game clearly suits a type of challenge, and golf courses that contain nuance. I am going to point to the short game again. Henley is ranked top of the scrambling stats on the PGA Tour, and he also excels in putting, proximity and greens in regulation percentage.
As well as coming tied for third at Augusta, he also came tied for sixth at Bay Hill and won the Charles Schwab Challenge. So, we’re talking about a winner this season who has very solid recent US Open form. Henley will certainly do for me at 33/1.
Jake Knapp @ 100/1
I wanted to look further into my quest for value and dive into some triple-figure prices. Rickie Fowler is one to watch, for sure, but I settled on Jake Knapp, and this is because I believe he possesses a great combination of long game power and short game skill.
He is ninth in driving distance on the PGA Tour, and he is in the green when it comes to total strokes gained off the tee, too. He is ranked first in scrambling from the rough when it comes to his short game, and 16th in general scrambling. And crucially, he is ranked second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting, and fourth in average putts per round.
Again, numbers can tell a different story from what reality shows. Knapp is inexperienced at the majors, but he did come 11th at the Masters in April.
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He came eighth at Phoenix and sixth at Riviera earlier this year. All in all, he is 31st in the FedEx Cup rankings and 22nd in the Data Golf rankings. It is around this mark and this pool of players that the winner should emerge from.
NOW READ: What is the US Open playoff format?
What do you think of our US Open betting 2026 tips? Who would you add to our US Open betting 2026 list? Let me know with on X!
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