LIV 2.0, as it might be called, could live or die on the decision of Jon Rahm.
LIV Golf’s long-term future has come under renewed scrutiny, with questions surrounding its finances, its player base and, perhaps most importantly, its ability to attract new talent.
Where Rahm plies his trade in 2027 could therefore be central to what comes next.
Even if LIV returns in a new guise, perhaps with the reduced schedule of 10 events that has been reported, the strength of its playing roster is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Its veterans are another year older and, in some cases, players who were already approaching the latter stages of their careers when they joined LIV are now at an age where they might be considering the Champions Tour, or the Legends Tour in Europe.
That has always been one of the criticisms aimed at the league. LIV managed to attract some outstanding players, but it also became a lucrative destination for ageing golfers looking for one final substantial payday.
The issue now is where their replacements are going to come from, if we start to see players exit.
In its early years, LIV had the financial muscle to prise players such as Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau away from the PGA Tour. Hugely lucrative contracts gave some of the best golfers in the world an obvious reason to take the risk.
But if the financial landscape has changed, where are the waverers now?
It is difficult to see LIV attracting established PGA Tour stars in their prime if the extraordinary financial incentives that drove the original recruitment spree are no longer available.
Instead, the potential player pool could increasingly consist of PGA Tour players who have lost their cards or DP World Tour players who aren’t competing at the highest level but still see enough money on offer to make the move worthwhile.
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That isn’t a recipe for strengthening a league already fighting questions over the quality and depth of its fields.
It is also why Rahm has become so important.
What Jon Rahm does next could determine LIV Golf’s future
LIV will surely be desperate to keep the 31-year-old. Equally, it would be foolish to disregard the enormous boost his return would give the PGA Tour.
Rahm wasn’t simply another big-name signing for LIV. He was arguably its most important acquisition.
This wasn’t an ageing former major champion accepting a lucrative contract in the twilight of his career. Rahm arrived as the reigning Masters champion in 2024, a two-time major winner and one of the best golfers on the planet.
His signing gave LIV legitimacy at a time when it desperately needed it.
His departure could do precisely the opposite.
If LIV cannot convince a player of Rahm’s stature to remain at the centre of whatever comes next, it becomes increasingly difficult to understand what the league’s future looks like.
And does Rahm really have much of a decision to make?
Cancelled events, changes to the season-ending schedule, reductions to individual and team prize funds and delays to player payments and vendors have all added to the uncertainty.
Against that backdrop, the idea of Rahm returning to the PGA Tour in 2027 hardly feels far-fetched. In fact, it increasingly feels inevitable.
The PGA Tour would surely want him back. Rahm would return to the circuit where he established himself as one of the defining players of his generation and once again compete regularly against many of the world’s leading golfers.
Both sides have something significant to gain.
Whatever obstacles might stand between Rahm and a PGA Tour return, if both parties want the same outcome, you would expect them to find a way of making it happen.
For LIV, however, the consequences could be far more significant. Losing Rahm would not simply mean losing another star player.
It would mean losing arguably the most important golfer it has, at precisely the moment when the league is attempting to establish whether it has a meaningful future.
LIV has already spent years and enormous sums of money attempting to disrupt professional golf. If the end result is a league populated increasingly by fading stars and players who can no longer establish themselves at the highest level elsewhere, it risks being remembered as a massive folly.
Rahm’s next move won’t answer every question surrounding LIV Golf.
But it might answer the biggest one:
What is left if he goes?
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