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DS Automobiles Italian Open betting tips

We're in Rome this week as the DP World Tour arrives at the DS Automobiles Italian Open. Oddschecker's Tom Jacobs has studied the form
 

The DP World Tour returns to Marco Simone for the DS Automobiles Italian Open, the host venue of the 2023 Ryder Cup. Scroll down for my DS Automobiles Italian Open betting tips, but first…

Italian Open preview

Venue: Marco Simone GC, Rome, Italy

Date: May 4-7, 2023

Course stats: Par 71; 7,255 yards

Purse: $3.25 million

Defending champion: Robert MacIntyre

TV coverage

Thursday: Sky Sports Golf and Main Event from 1pm

Friday: Sky Sports Golf and Main Event from 1pm

Saturday: Sky Sports Golf from 12.30pm

Sunday: Sky Sports Golf and Main Event from 12.30pm

2023 Italian Open betting tips

The Banker: Jorge Campillo @ 33/1

Jorge Campillo is the most obvious bet of the week, and whilst it is sometimes off-putting when something is this obvious, I am going to take a chance that Campillo lives up to his efforts on paper.

In his last four starts on the DP World Tour, Campillo has finished 4th, 1st, 9th, and 3rd and now he heads to the Italian Open where he has 7th and 9th place finishes, with the latter coming at this course last year.

We don’t quite know how reliable the Strokes Gained data is on the DP World Tour in recent weeks, but he’s ranked inside the top 12 in SG Tee to Green in each of his past four starts, and given his results in that span it is likely accurate that he is hitting the ball that well.

Until we see the likes of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, and the English trio of Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, and Tommy Fleetwood return to this Tour, there is very little reason to overlook the likes of Campillo who has proven he has what it takes to win.

Campillo is a three-time winner on the DP World Tour, all of which have come since 2019 and his most recent win at the 2023 Magical Kenya Open served as a stark reminder that when the field is absent of the very best players in the world, he can step up and win and that’s what I expect him to do this week, on this year’s Ryder Cup course.

The Each-Way: Adri Arnaus @ 50/1

Adri Arnaus is one player who would have been mentioned in a Ryder Cup long list before qualification started but has not done enough to really put himself firmly in the picture. That could change this week at Marco Simone, where has was 12th on debut, and 2nd at the 36-hole stage.

Before his 12th here in 2021, Arnaus had already posted a 5th place finish in the Italian Open and he could have easily won that week, so whilst his form on a different Italian Open layout may not be all that significant, he clearly likes playing in this part of the world.

Arnaus has missed his past two cuts, but he was 2nd at the SDC Championship three starts ago, and that adds to a 6th at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship and a 13th at the Dubai Desert Classic. Add these finishes to his T9 finish at the 2022 DP World Tour Championship, and the volatile Spaniard has been in and around the top 10 contending in four of his last nine starts.

In each of his past two missed cuts, Arnaus has shot a 68 so his form hasn’t completely deserted him and now at an extremely suitable course, he can excel once again.

Form at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship stands to be important with Nicolai Hojgaard winning both there and here, and Robert MacIntyre winning here and finishing 13th the year Hojgaard won at Al Hamra, where he should have finished better. Arnaus won at that course when the event was on the Challenge Tour and he was also T6 there in the DP World event earlier this season, so it is clear there is some crossover. The same can be said about his form at the DP World Tour Championship, where he has finished inside the top 10 three times, and where Hojgaard and MacIntyre have both finished 4th.

This should be a good course for Arnaus again and behind his fellow Spaniard, Campillo, he makes the most appeal for me.

The Long-Shot: Daniel Gavins @ 275/1

Daniel Gavins makes plenty of appeal to me as a longshot, when you consider where he has played his best golf, as well as his effort last week.

Gavins rallied back from a poor start last week to finish T14 in Korea, and when you add that to his win at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship earlier this year, an event we have flagged as one that could correlate with this, he looks worth a bet at such long odds.

The Englishman’s two T6 finishes at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship link in well with both course winners here and his T13 finish at the Catalunya Championship last year came where Adri Arnaus won, Oliver Bekker finished 2nd, and Adrian Meronk and Edoardo Molinari both finished top 10. This could be significant because each one of these players can also boast top-10 finishes at Marco Simone over the past two years.

Take a chance on Gavins at a huge price, given his recent win on Tour, and his ability to drive it with the best of them in Italy.

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