US Open betting tips: Who will triumph at Torrey Pines?
US Open betting tips: First-round leader
First-round leader: Corey Conners @ 60/1 with Bet365
It’s major week, so in comes my main man Conners in this market. Conners is a player always capable of a fast start, and major championship tests seem to suit his game well. The increased premium on accuracy and precision give him an advantage of many in the field, and when you consider he has finished in the top-20 in three of his last five major starts, he certainly appeals again. Conners was the first round leader at the PGA Championship, posting 67 on Thursday when others struggled to break par, so he gets the nod from me to repeat that this week.
First-round leader: Collin Morikawa @ 28/1 with Bet365
Morikawa nearly snuck into my main betting tips, but I decided to marginally side with Xander Schauffele this time around. That is a decision I may live to regret, but I will not be missing out on the first round leader action as Morikawa is playing some great stuff. The 2020 PGA Champion got off to a solid start at Kiawah Island a few weeks ago, posting a score of 70 that helped propel him to an 8th place tournament finish. Morikawa also posted a 66 in round one at the Memorial and a 65 in round one at the RBC Heritage, so has plenty of previous form to suggest this could be a shrewd bet this week.
First-round leader: Jason Kokrak @ 66/1 with Bet365
When the price is this good for a player, you have to grab it in as many markets as you can. Kokrak is in great form at the moment, and confidence in a major championship is crucial. Kokrak has regularly started hot on the PGA Tour this season, especially recently, with his last four opening round scores reading 65-67-71-65. In fact, Kokrak has only shot higher than 71 once in any first round on the PGA Tour this season. That is 19 events, including four major championships, so for me this selection is a no-brainer.
US Open betting tips: Outright winners
Bazza’s Banker: Xander Schauffele @ 20/1 with Bet365
With other market leaders perhaps looking slightly short in the betting, Schauffele represents excellent value. Schauffele has threatened to win his first major championship on a number of occasions, but this year could be different as he arrives with plenty in his favour.
When he played here in January for the Farmers Insurance Open, Schauffele finished second and was one of the leading contenders chasing down Patrick Reed on that day.
That course experience will be important here, especially as he has finished in the top-six at his last four US Opens.
His recent form is also positive, with top-11 finishes in four of his last five starts, and he ranks inside the top-25 for five out of six Strokes Gained measures in the last six months.
When you bet on Schauffele you know what to expect, and it is that consistency and quality that makes him a non-negotiable for me at this event.
The Outsider: Louis Oosthuizen @ 55/1 with Bet365
After nearly running down Phil Mickelson at the PGA Championship last month, I am surprised to see the ever-dependable Oosthuizen at such a big price.
His runner-up finish at Kiawah was so impressive, and he should certainly suit this type of test based on the data. Oosthuizen has finished inside the top-25 in his last six US Opens, including three top-seven finishes.
The South African also ranks 1st for SG: Putting in the last six months and arrives off the back of three top-eight finishes in his last four events.
As an each-way bet, you will not get many more reliable that Oosthuizen on this kind of stage.
The Long Shot: Jason Kokrak @ 100/1 with Bet365
If you are prepared to offer me a three-figure price on a recent PGA Tour winner with great stats, I will gladly oblige.
Kokrak was sublime when fending off Jordan Spieth to win the Charles Schwab Challenge, and I can see that being the kick-start he needed this season.
In the last three months, Kokrak ranks in the top 20 for SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Tee-to-Green, and SG: Putting, making him an ideal contender on paper.
He also performed well for three out of four rounds when playing at Torrey Pines in January, which will be an experience I am sure he will have learnt a lot from. At a very tasty price, I cannot resist an each-way bet on Kokrak this week.
The Why Not: Ian Poulter @ 200/1 with Bet365
As it’s a major, let’s have a fourth pick. And with the Ryder Cup looming in September, I do not think it is any coincidence that we are seeing a mini-resurgence in form for Postman Poults.
The Englishman has a wealth of US Open experience, and as we saw with Phil Mickelson recently, this could prove to be vital.
Poulter has finished in the top-30 in five of his last seven starts, including when third at the Charles Schwab Challenge recently, and he also ranks seventh for SG: Putting in the last three months.
We know all to well how spectacular his short game can be, so if Poulter can use his experience to negotiate this tricky track, this price could be far too big.
For more prices visit Bet365.
