They used to say you could rely on two things: death and taxes. Well, when a golf major comes to town there is a third. A player will always get asked the question, ‘what would an average golfer shoot round here?’
The tour player will chuckle slightly, give the questioner a knowing look, and then reply with a number that has three digits in it.
Have you seen the video of the rough this week at Oakmont? If Collin Morikawa isn’t moving it very far, then I’m not sure any of us would be advancing it either.
But just how difficult is the Pennsylvania course for those of us who don’t earn a living playing golf? Thanks to the USGA, you can have a go at predicting your score.
By visiting their Course Rating and Slope database, you can find out the essential numbers for Henry Fownes’ masterpiece from every single tee set.
And by popping onto their course calculator page you can also discover what your target score would be if you were playing the Par 70, 7,372-yard monster this week.
With a Course Rating of 78.1 and Slope Rating of 150 (the maximum is 155), you already know you’re going to be adding plenty onto your World Handicap System index when you pop a tee peg in the ground on the 1st.
But just how many?
What would you score at Oakmont?
My WHS index is 13.5. That would give me a mammoth Course Handicap of 26 shots and a target score of 96 at Oakmont. If I’m honest with you, I still don’t think there is any chance I’d be breaking 100.
A woman with the same handicap index as me would be looking at a Course Rating of 84.6, a Slope of 155, and a Course Handicap of 33. Their target score would be 103.
Want more? Let’s go through some more numbers.
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A male scratch handicapper – 0.0 for our purposes – would have eight shots to play with; an 18 handicapper would receive a Course Handicap of 32! Their target score wouldn’t break three figures. If they met the prediction, they would walk off having shot 102.
A male 28 handicapper would be toting a massive Course Handicap of 45. They’d be aiming to get round in 115 shots.
What if a player was toting the maximum handicap allowed – 54.0? They would get an enormous course handicap of 80 and would be lucky to make it round this ordeal in 150 strokes.
just to give you a hint of just how hard Oakmont is for even the very best players, to achieve a Course Handicap of 0 – and to have a target score of par off the US Open tees – a male player would be expected to have a World Handicap System index of +6!
For women, a scratch handicapper would be toting 15 shots on their course handicap. A female playing off 28.0, would be looking at a Course Rating of 84.6 and a Course Handicap of 53. Their target score would be 123.
Just for a bit of fun, we’ve worked out the Course Handicaps for many of the possible WHS index combinations for male players – right from scratch to 54.
How many shots would you get at Oakmont? (male players)
Table shows WHS Index, Course Handicap and Target Score
| 0 | 8 | 78 |
| 1 | 9 | 79 |
| 2 | 11 | 81 |
| 3 | 12 | 82 |
| 4 | 13 | 83 |
| 5 | 15 | 85 |
| 6 | 16 | 86 |
| 7 | 17 | 87 |
| 8 | 18 | 89 |
| 9 | 20 | 90 |
| 10 | 21 | 91 |
| 11 | 23 | 93 |
| 12 | 24 | 94 |
| 13 | 25 | 95 |
| 14 | 27 | 97 |
| 15 | 28 | 98 |
| 16 | 29 | 99 |
| 17 | 31 | 101 |
| 18 | 32 | 102 |
| 19 | 33 | 103 |
| 20 | 35 | 105 |
| 21 | 36 | 106 |
| 22 | 37 | 107 |
| 23 | 39 | 109 |
| 24 | 40 | 110 |
| 25 | 41 | 111 |
| 26 | 43 | 113 |
| 27 | 44 | 114 |
| 28 | 45 | 115 |
| 29 | 47 | 117 |
| 30 | 48 | 118 |
| 31 | 49 | 119 |
| 32 | 51 | 121 |
| 33 | 52 | 122 |
| 34 | 53 | 123 |
| 35 | 55 | 125 |
| 36 | 56 | 126 |
| 37 | 57 | 127 |
| 38 | 59 | 129 |
| 39 | 60 | 130 |
| 40 | 61 | 131 |
| 41 | 63 | 133 |
| 42 | 64 | 134 |
| 43 | 65 | 135 |
| 44 | 67 | 137 |
| 45 | 68 | 138 |
| 46 | 69 | 139 |
| 47 | 70 | 140 |
| 48 | 72 | 142 |
| 49 | 73 | 143 |
| 50 | 74 | 144 |
| 51 | 76 | 146 |
| 52 | 77 | 147 |
| 53 | 78 | 148 |
| 54 | 80 | 150 |
So what does the target score mean? An explanation from Golf Journal says it’s what you’ll shoot if you play to your handicap.
It argues players will manage that up to 20 per cent of the time – firing two to four strokes higher in most rounds.
So even though the target is set, most of the time you’d still come up disappointed if you took on the same tees as Tiger Woods and company at the US Open.
But look at it this way. If you ever got the chance to tee it up at Oakmont, at least you’d get your money’s worth!
Now have your say?
How do your numbers work out when you use the USGA’s target score calculator? Let me know how it all stacks up for you by sending me your vitals on X or be emailing me at s.carroll@nationalclubgolfer.com
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