Who to back at the Valspar Championship
Valspar Championship betting tips: Steve’s top tips
Henrik Stenson’s season has largely been marked by inactivity.
After posting successive top 10s in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the Swede tanked at the Maybank Championship and hasn’t been seen since.
That long break makes me slightly nervous. I’m calmed, though, by some excellent Valspar Championship form. Seventh, 11th and fourth over the last three years, a best price of 22/1 is really attractive.
After two missed cuts at Innisbrook, Tony Finau (25/1) was fifth 12 months ago and it can’t be long before the American adds to his single PGA Tour win.
He’s been knocking on the door at various points this season. He was runner-up at the Safeway Open, the Genesis Open and also finished top 10 at the Farmers Insurance Open.
There were signs in Mexico that Jordan Spieth’s putter is starting to behave. The winner here in 2015, some of the worries about his form have been exaggerated and 9/1 appeals.
Valspar Championship betting tips: Steve’s each-way bets
It’s been four years since Webb Simpson (50/1) last won a PGA Tour event and there are signs he may soon be ready to enter the winner’s circle once again.
Tied fourth at the Sony Open in Hawaii, he was tied fifth a couple of weeks ago at the Honda Classic.
It may surprise you to learn that Simpson, who has found the anchoring ban to be a struggle, is sixth on the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained putting.
Add in some excellent course form at Innisbrook – he enjoyed a stretch between 2010 and 2013 where he finished no worse than 17th – and he looks in ideal shape to give us a shot at some each-way cash.
Charl Schwartzel’s form is nothing to shout about. Tied 15th at his home South African Open is his best contribution of the year.
But the former Masters winner is too good a player, and ball striker, to stay in the doldrums for long.
He could be revitalised on familiar, and winning, ground. Schwartzel won the Valspar in 2016 and was sixth in an excellent defence 12 months ago.
At 66/1, that’s a big price for something with proven course form – despite his current travails.
With finishes of 18th, third and fifth over the past three years, Ryan Moore (45/1) could also have a say in this championship.
Never near contention in Mexico, Moore did post a top 10 at Riviera to show he’s in reasonable touch.
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Steve Carroll
A journalist for 25 years, Steve has been immersed in club golf for almost as long. A former club captain, he has passed the Level 3 Rules of Golf exam with distinction having attended the R&A's prestigious Tournament Administrators and Referees Seminar.
Steve has officiated at a host of high-profile tournaments, including Open Regional Qualifying, PGA Fourball Championship, English Men's Senior Amateur, and the North of England Amateur Championship. In 2023, he made his international debut as part of the team that refereed England vs Switzerland U16 girls.
A part of NCG's Top 100s panel, Steve has a particular love of links golf and is frantically trying to restore his single-figure handicap. He currently floats at around 11.
Steve plays at Close House, in Newcastle, and York GC, where he is a member of the club's matches and competitions committee and referees the annual 36-hole scratch York Rose Bowl.
Having studied history at Newcastle University, he became a journalist having passed his NTCJ exams at Darlington College of Technology.
What's in Steve's bag: TaylorMade Stealth 2 driver, 3-wood, and hybrids; TaylorMade Stealth 2 irons; TaylorMade Hi-Toe, Ping ChipR, Sik Putter.
