Nedbank Golf Challenge betting: Steve’s top tips
You bet against Branden Grace (18/1) on home soil at your peril.
The South African has a great record on his own patch. Two of his seven European Tour victories (the Joburg Open in 2012 and the Alfred Dunhill Championship in 2015) have come while he enjoyed home comforts.
In fact, it’s hard to find a tournament in South Africa where he hasn’t held a lofty position on the leaderboard. It will come as no surprise then to note his top five finish here 12 months ago.
With a host of leading names opting to sit this one out – Sergio Garcia, Justin Rose and Jon Rahm just three of those deciding to go straight to Dubai next week – Grace’s claims are obvious.
Countryman Louis Oosthuizen (16/1) will have supporters for similar reasons. He’s actually won at the Gary Player Country Club, although it was 10 years ago on the Sunshine Tour, and was in the top 10 last year.
I’m also going to add Matthew Fitzpatrick (20/1) to the list.
The European Masters champion has not slowed down since lifting the trophy at Crans-sur-Sierre. He may have had more to show from his week at the Turkish Airlines Open but for a third round 70.
Even so, rounds of 69, 65 and 68 – admittedly on a low scoring course – reveal a player in high confidence and good touch.
Nedbank Golf Challenge betting: Steve’s each way bets
Victor Dubuisson (45/1) hasn’t yet the best of years but the mercurial Frenchman seems to like it round this course and he’s been teasing us with some decent stuff in the last few weeks.
After finishing in the top five of the Trophee Hassan II in April, his season looked to be little more than a write-off. Then he ended up on the third rung of the podium at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.
He withdrew from the Italian Open and then scraped into the top 40 last week. But he came through the weekend in 69 and 68.
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Add that to a tied fourth in the Nedbank last year and I can’t find many reasons, at the price, not to get involved.
Dylan Frittelli (66/1) also ticks a lot of boxes. A clubhouse leader last week, until Rose drained that final putt, his runners-up spot capped a weekend where he took a total of 130 shots.
He has no course form here to draw on but he’s feasting on the same home vibes as Grace and Oosthuizen.
I always find a very strong recent performance hard to resist and the Lyoness Open winner has backed up good finishes this season.
Tied 14th at the BMW International Open after winning in Austria, he’d earlier followed a tied 5th at the Shenzhen International with a runners-up display at the China Open.
Nedbank Golf Challenge betting: Steve’s outsider bet
Stephen Gallacher (125/1) hasn’t played here much – 12th on his only appearance in 2014 when the tournament was a 30-man event.
But a casual scan of the European Tour form shows a player with three top 20 finishes in his last five events, including last week.
It’s a far cry from the form that got him into the 2014 Ryder Cup team. It suggests, though, he’s playing a little better than the odds suggest.
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