I often wonder how many green jackets Rory McIlroy would now own were it not for his back nine collapse at Augusta National in 2011.

Seven years ago, the then 21-year-old had been in the box seat since firing an opening round 65.

But a triple-bogey seven on the 10th, in scenes that are continually replayed every time McIlroy’s name is mentioned in connection with The Masters, led to a final round 80 and the most humiliating of collapses.

In the years since, the Northern Irishman has been ultra consistent in the first major of the year – finishing in the top 10 for the last four years.

He has never really threatened to break the curse of 2011, though.

Following his victory in the Arnold Palmer International a couple of weeks ago, he yet again arrives on Magnolia Lane fighting for favouritism with the bookies.

It’s a three-way fight at present between McIlroy, the returning Tiger Woods and the world No. 1 Dustin Johnson.

So do we have any reason to feel better about his chances this time? Does the 9/1 on offer for the four-time major winner represent value?

We’ll assess that in a minute. But the bet that absolutely stands out to me, given what we’ve already detailed, is the 7/10 on offer for a top 10 finish.

Rory McIlroy

McIlroy may not have won a major since the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla but, in the 12 big four tournaments he has played since, that bet would have landed six times.

Having only missed one cut in nine appearances at The Masters, you’d be pretty hopeful of this bet riding into the weekend.

So what are the chances we’ll see McIlroy slip into the Green Jacket on Sunday. Article continues over the page…