US Open betting tips

Welcome to my new look previews for NCG where I’m going to keep track of how much profit and loss I make over the course of the year. Starting with the first major of the 2021 season and ending – well, that really depends on a number of factors. Before we get to my US Open betting tips, here’s what you need to know…

Venue: Winged Foot Golf Club, New York, USA

Date: September 17-20, 2020

Course stats: Par 70; 7,477 yards

Course summary: Winged Foot has a history of offering gripping majors with striking story lines and firework finishes – as the 2006 US Open proved for both Phil Mickelson and Colin Montgomerie. The course is a true test, with narrow fairways and thick rough to challenge the players’ accuracy. The greens are fast and undulating poa annua surfaces, which become increasingly difficult when firm. The tree-lined, bunker littered, Goliath of a course will certainly offer a major championship challenge, where anything around level par – as one would expect for a US Open – could be a winning score.

Purse: $12.5 million

Defending champion: Gary Woodland (-13)

US Open betting tips: Staking Plan

Jon Rahm – 10pts (£10) to win @ 10/1 with bet365

Rahm is the second favourite going into this US Open and was our top tip to win the FedEx Cup finale at East Lake. Despite a destructive 4-over-par second round, Rahm fought back to finish 4th demonstrating that he is able to keep calm and carry on under intense pressure. That will be important at Winged Foot this week, as the challenge is likely to frustrate the players and test the psychological aspects of their game. Statistically, Rahm looks to have a great chance of improving on his 3rd-place finish last season. His 2019-2020 rankings saw him 3rd in SG: Tee-to-Green, 18th in GIR, 11th in Scrambling, and 8th in Putting Average. His game has very few weaknesses, evidenced by two wins on tour this season, and he is surely on his way to winning a major championship.

Xander Schauffele – 10pts (£10) to win @ 18/1 with bet365

A heroic effort in the Tour Championship demonstrated just how ready Schauffele is to join the top table of golf’s elite. The FedEx cup runner-up has three top-6 finishes in the last three renewals of the US Open, and 16 top-25 finishes in 18 PGA Tour events last season. Schauffele’s consistency also tempts me. He ranks 8th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 10th in GIR, 2nd in Scrambling, and 36th in Putting Average. He certainly fits the profile of a winner and, much like Rahm, he is a major champion in the making.

Tyrrell Hatton – 5pts (£5) each-way @ 40/1 with bet365

Hatton may have shocked a few in the US last time out with his 7th-place finish in his first Tour Championshipto cap off a fine debut season on the PGA Tour for the Englishman, which included his first win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and four other top-6 finishes. Hatton fares well in the key statistics for this venue, ranking 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 38th in GIR, and 3rd in Putting Average. He also ranks as one of the best putters on poa annua greens, with an average 2.679 strokes gained since 2014. A 6th-place finish two years ago at Shinnecock Hills demonstrates his ability to navigate US Open venues, and at that price he is certainly worth an each-way bet this week. 

Daniel Berger – 5pts (£5) each-way @ 30/1 with bet365

The consistency of Berger’s golf since the restart has been phenomenal, and his story is surely one of the highlights of the 2019-2020 season following a long journey back from injury. Berger missed just one cut in eight events, with four top-3 finishes, and it’s that level of consistency that means I have to include him on the staking plan. A 6th-place finish in 2018 demonstrates his suitability for this event, and a T13 finish at the PGA Championship last month highlights how well he plays on long, tough courses. Berger fits the profile of a winner here, ranking 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 1st in Scrambling, and 21st in Putting Average. Further encouragement comes in the form of strong approach statistics, both from the fairway and the rough, which will be important here. After a storybook comeback for Berger, the US Open crown would be the icing on the cake and I can see him mounting a serious challenge this week. 

Martin Kaymer – 5pts (£5) each-way to finish top former champion @ 22/1 with bet365

Kaymer’s recent resurgence has come at the right time, sparking memories of his wire-to-wire US Open win at Pinehurst. The 2014 champion has a runner-up and 3rd-place finish in his last two events. An opening-round 66 at the PGA Championship was encouraging, even if it was followed by an 82 on Friday to miss the weekend, and I fancy him to improve on that performance at an event where he has made eight of his last 10 cuts. His statistics on the European Tour this season are more representative of the Kaymer we know – a player who hits greens in regulation and makes putts consistently. That is exactly what this course requires and if the German can transfer his European form over to the US, that price could hold plenty of value. With only 10 players in the market to beat, and three places on offer, I’m all in.

For more prices, visit bet365.

Who are you backing to win the US Open? You can let us know in the comments below or tweet us. You can also follow Barry on Twitter.