We're in the Netherlands this week as the DP World Tour arrives at the KLM Open. Oddschecker's Tom Jacobs has studied the form
The DP World Tour returns to Bernardus Golf for the KLM Open. Scroll down for my KLM Open betting tips, but first…
KLM Open preview
Venue: Bernardus Golf, Cromvoirt, Netherlands
Date: May 25-28, 2023
Course stats: Par 72; 7,445 yards
Purse: $2 million
Defending champion: Victor Perez
Thursday: Sky Sports Golf and Sky Sports Main Event from 12.30pm
Friday: Sky Sports Golf from 12.30pm
Saturday: Sky Sports Golf from 11.30am
Sunday: Sky Sports Golf from 11.30am
2023 KLM Open betting tips
The Best Bet: Sebastian Soderberg @ 60/1
Despite the fact Sebastian Soderberg is my best bet of the week, I am going to keep the case for him rather simple – to just make it clear why he’s the one to bet this week and not to overload on what is essentially very straightforward.
Soderberg has a great record on Kyle Phillips designs, having finished 3rd at the 2015 Nordea Masters, top 20 at the Rocco Forte Open, and top 35 in a Dunhill Links that features Phillips’ design Kingsbarns in its rotation. Add that to the fact that he was 2nd at Yas Links this year, when the Tour moved the Abu Dhabi Championship there earlier this season, and you have a rock-solid candidate for a golf course like this.
Then add that on his only start on this golf course, Soderberg finished 5th 12 months ago, and the question of whether he can compete not just on similar courses, but this one in particular, is also answered.
In his past four starts, Soderberg has two top-nine finishes and despite finishing 61st in Japan he looked good there as well, having been in 8th place after two rounds before a tough weekend. Soderberg is far from the finished article but he is a winner on Tour, beating Rory McIlroy no less at the European Masters and he can win again this week.
The Each-Way: Max Kieffer @ 55/1
Maximilian Kieffer is a one-time winner on the DP World Tour, having won a weather-affected Czech Masters last season, which was reduced to 54 holes. This probably doesn’t do his career justice, as he’s typically been very solid throughout his DP World Tour career and he is twice a play-off loser in Spain and Austria.
He now returns to Holland with a good chance to win, as he is in good form and has a chance to play a course he has done well at for the past two years.
Kieffer’s last three starts on Tour have seen him finish 16th, 5th, and 41st, whilst his two course starts have yielded finishes of 15th and 14th. His 15th on debut in 2021 could have been even better, given he was 4th going into the weekend. If he finds himself in a similar situation this time around, I think he could go on and double his DP World Tour win tally.
Kyle Phillips designed this Bernardus Golf course and he is responsible for multiple courses on the DP World Tour. He likes to get his hands on links or faux links courses and another one of those which wasn’t quite a true links test, but featured the same challenges, was PGA National of Sweden. That course hosted the Nordea Masters in 2014 and 2015 and, in his two starts there, the German finished 3rd and 11th, which is another positive sign.
Kieffer is exactly the level of player that is going to benefit from the top-tier players moving over to the PGA Tour and, even with the likes of Adrian Meronk and Victor Perez in the field, this is another good opportunity for him to compete.
The Long-Shot: Dan Bradbury @ 90/1
Dan Bradbury burst onto the DP World Tour scene in 2022, winning on just his third start at the Joburg Open.
The 23-year-old Englishman has been a bit in and out in terms of form since but he’s flashed some excellent form at times, including at the Dubai Desert Classic where he was in the final group with Rory McIlroy but eventually went on to finish T28.
That effort came a week after he made the cut at the Kyle Phillips-designed, Yas Links, where he could only finish 60th but was 22nd in a strong field going into the weekend.
It appears Bradbury took another confidence boost from the opening two rounds in Abu Dhabi to then contend for three rounds in Dubai and it looks like he did similar on his last two starts as well. Bradbury finished T32 in a good field at the Italian Open, where he ranked 22nd in SG Approach, and then on his very next start at the Soudal Open he finished in 10th place, leading the field in both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green. If we have learned anything about Bradbury in a short space of time, it is that he can carry confidence into the next week and that is what he will do this week.
The Other Long-Shot: Joakim Lagergren @ 150/1
Finally, in an event that could well reward longshots after a long week for the favorites at Oak Hill, I will take one last swing with Joakim Lagergren who may just be Kyle Phillips’ biggest fan, and someone who can certainly find a result put of nothing.
Lagergren has missed the cut the two times he’s played here, but the Swede has won the 2017 Sicilian Open, has four top-four finishes at the Dunhill Links, and also finished T18 at The Grove at the 2016 British Masters, despite sitting 105th after round one there. All of these efforts come on Kyle Phillips designs, where wind for the most part can and does come into play, and eventually, I expect that form to bleed into a good result at this golf course. It wasn’t all that long ago that Lagergren finished 6th at the Jonsson Workwear Open, and if anyone is going to produce a win out of the clouds it could very easily be Lagergren, so why not bet on him doing that somewhere like this?
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