Betting tips: Who to back at the BMW Championship

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The FedEx Cup playoffs return and our expert reckons sticking towards to the top of the betting markets is the best strategy...

BMW Championship betting: Steve’s top tip

Can anyone give me a good reason why Justin Thomas (11/1), should be nearly double the price of market leader Jordan Spieth?

Spieth, of course, could have won both FedEx Cup playoff events this year. But he didn’t and he was bested by his pal in their final round duel at the Dell Technologies a couple of weeks ago.

When Thomas has been hot, and that victory at TPC Boston was his fifth of this season, he’s shown no compunction about winning again quickly.

The SBS Tournament of Champions success was followed immediately by the Sony Open in January and, hot on the heels of PGA Championship glory, came triumph on the east coast.

Can we honestly say he can’t do that again? Winning the FedEx Cup – and he’s currently second in the standings – wouldn’t just crown an unbelievable year it would bag him another $10 million. That’s a big enough prize pool to give anyone focus.

We’ve seen time and time again that form counts for an awful lot in the playoffs. I think Thomas should be the favourite here. The fact he isn’t means we are being offered a bit of value.

BMW Championship betting: Steve’s each-way tip

BMW Championship

The bookies continue to tease me with Paul Casey (22/1). His fourth-place finish at Boston was his third top five in four events and his eighth top 10 of the season.

With wife Polyanna now having successfully given birth, there are no potential distractions for the Englishman. Will Keith Elliott’s famous ‘nappy factor’ come into play?

At any rate, why would you not want to ride the Casey train until it comes to an abrupt stop? Last season, Casey’s playoff run went 2nd, 2nd, 4th right up to East Lake. He’s doing exactly the same this time around.

Few have shown his level of consistency, without winning, and I’d be more surprised if he finished mid-table.

Casey still finds ways not to win but, with oddsmakers paying down to sixth, I’m happy to hopefully collect another pile of each-way cash.

BMW Championship betting: Steve’s outsider bet

BMW Championship

Outsiders don’t tend to do well as the FedEx Cup field contracts. Just a brief glance at the list of winners here, which include Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day, shows you usually need to be looking towards the game’s elite to find your winner.

I’ve been continually burned over the past couple of years backing Phil Mickelson (70/1) but could his top 10 at the Dell Technologies be a turning point?

Phil, who hasn’t won since the Open in 2013, revealed doctors had discovered an issue with his health and that sudden certainty seemed to revitalise him. His sixth place in Boston was his best strokeplay result of the season.

Is it merely a flash in the pan or could Phil be on his way back? At this price, on each-way terms, I’ll make a small investment to find out.

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