Betting tips: Who to back at the WGC-Mexico Championship

Golf News

The first World Golf Championship of the year is upon us, so who does our betting expert think is going to shine in Mexico City?

The one to be on: Henrik Stenson

Dustin Johnson is a worthy favourite but it’s tough to win back to back. At more than double the price, I think Stenson could be the better play at the WGC-Mexico Championship.

You’re going to need to be accurate rather than long at the Chapultepec course.

It’s only 7,300 yards and, at 7,500ft altitude, even the shortest hitters are going to find this little trouble.

But if it’s not long, it is tight and I want a player who can find a fairway and carve it into a green.

It might have an Open feel for me – in the sense that mistakes will be severely punished – and there’s no one I’d rather go into bat for me in those circumstances than the super Swede.

He’s lightly raced this year but he’s finished eighth and second in his two starts this season – the latter to Sergio Garcia at the Dubai Desert Classic.

Hitting more than 80 percent of greens in regulation, I think he’s primed for a big week at the WGC-Mexico Championship. I’ll be on at 16s.

The each-way back: Justin Rose

Mexico Championship

Some might find 25/1 a bit short for an each-way shout, given some of the massive prices on offer at the WGC-Mexico Championship. But Rose really doesn’t look that far away from getting back on the winning trail.

The Olympic champion has returned from the back injury that dogged him at the back end of last season in decent form.

Pebble Beach was an off week but the Englishman has otherwise been rock solid.

He’s finished second at the Sony Open, tied fourth at the Farmers Insurance and T4 again at the Genesis Open.

With firms paying out for six places, I’ll be disappointed if we go into Sunday without a chance of collecting.

If he could just hole a few more putts – always the if with Justin – we could be celebrating a nice victory.

The dark horse: Jhonattan Vegas

Mexico Championship

Vegas is 125/1 with some of the bookies. Just let that sink in for a second.

The Venuzuelan was leading the Genesis Open – in the worst of the weather – before finishing 15th. A final day charge gave him a top five standing last weekend at the Honda Classic.

That followed three events where he finished no lower than 34th.

He can play in the wind, has the ability to go on a birdie blitz and has been working hard on his short game.

It’s that aspect of his play – in and around the greens – that’s let him down. Putting can still be a challenge but, given his form, I’m finding it hard to ignore the price for the WGC-Mexico Championship.

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