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Country: gb Page generated at: Sunday, 28 December 2025 at 13:33:54 Greenwich Mean Time
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Features
1 in 6 million people do what I did on the golf course last summer

published: Aug 6, 2025

|

updated: Oct 23, 2025

1 in 6 million people do what I did on the golf course last summer

Matt ChiversLink

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NCG’s own Matt Chivers did something on the golf course that was almost as unlikely as winning the lottery. He crunched the numbers to understand the craziness of it

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  • An albatross in golf is the rarest of birds

I just assumed it hadn’t gone in, as you would.

Similar to when you fire a good tee shot at a par 3 pin, momentarily dreaming it might have found the bottom of the cup, you often walk up to find it long of the green. The ace in your head materialises into a tricky up-and-down for par.

I did see it disappear, though. Anyway, my playing partners and I reached the green, and the ball wasn’t above ground, or anywhere to be seen.

Good grief. At this stage, it couldn’t have been anywhere else.

It was in the hole. On the 11th at Fairhaven Golf Club, on Saturday August 2, 2025, I’d made an albatross.

I was speechless, not only because I couldn’t remember being remotely close to making a hole-in-one before, but also because as my round continued, it dawned on me that this was far more unlikely than an ace.

In fact, massively more unlikely…

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Average golfers and their scores, by their odds

Making an eagle1 in 250
Making a hole-in-one1 in 13,000
Holing a shot from over 200 yards away1 in 150,000
Making an albatross1 in 6 million

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An albatross in golf is the rarest of birds

The chances of a hole-in-one are about 1 in 13,000. But the chances of making this rarest of birds, a truly endangered species as far as golf is concerned, are one in 6 million.

These are ballpark figures, of course. Likelihood can vary from golfer to golfer depending on age and ability. The odds of an average golfer making an eagle on a par 5 are about one in 250. But professional golfers can be expected to make an eagle once in every 23 attempts on a par 5, or one in a 1,000 on a par 4.

The conditions of an albatross are very different to a hole-in-one as well. Not to toot my horn again and again, but you can tee your ball up and begin a hole before you make an ace on a par 3. There are somewhat man-made conditions at play on a tee box.

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An albatross is entirely dependent on where your ball finishes from your tee shot on a par 5. For many golfers, par 5s aren’t reachable in two shots to begin with, which takes an albatross and even an eagle almost completely out of the question.

Even for a player like me, who can reach the right par 5 in two shots, I often can’t conceive of finding the green due to angle, length and the lie my ball has rolled into.

These are other contributing factors as to why they are so rare. But also, the likelihood of someone finding the bottom of the cup from over 200 yards away just adds to the absurdity of it all. And this is invariably what is required to make an albatross.

The chances of a professional golfer holing out from over 200 yards away are about one in 2,700, and this extends to one in 150,000 once you go deeper into the club golfer ranks.

It was a very firm day in Lancashire, so I fancied my chances with a 6 iron from about 211 yards. It landed short of the green, rolled up and toppled underground next to the pin on the front of the green.

backstopping in golf

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My playing partners were as excited as I was, and the source of the excitement was that none of us suspected we would ever see an albatross, let alone make one.

It then made me question the chances of non-golf events occurring. Statistics tell us that the odds of being struck by lightning are one in 1,222,000 in a given year. Your chances of being killed in a plane crash are also one in 11 million.

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Many, many golfers have made hole-in-ones, regardless of age or ability, and many more haven’t made one but at least seen one with their own eyes.

A lot of golfers have made more than one hole-in-one, too. This is what makes the albatross so intriguing.

I was elated, of course I was. But it was a feeling of elation that I knew immediately I would never feel again. I’ll be forever grateful.

What is an albatross in golf?

An albatross in golf refers to scoring 3-under on one hole. This could be two shots on a par 5, and technically one shot on a par 4 – although you would probably just call this a hole-in-one.

In some places, the USA I mean, it is called a double eagle.

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Have you ever seen someone make an albatross golf score? Do you call it an albatross or a double eagle? Tell us on X!

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