Sony Open betting tips: Who will win at Waialae?

The PGA Tour’s Hawaiian swing continues with the Sony Open, and after last week’s chaos in Kapalua I cannot wait for this one to begin. Scroll down to see who I think will win the 2023 Sony Open, but first…

Sentry Tournament of Champions

Venue: Waialae Country Club, Hawaii

Date: January 12–15, 2023

Course stats: Par 72; 7,044 yards

Course summary: This short track is a different test to last week’s venue, with a Harbour Town links vibe that requires accuracy and precision from players. Wind is the main defence here, with scoring very interchangeable dependent on the conditions. Average width, tree-lined Bermuda fairways lead to large Bermuda greens that often play slow. This is an old-school type test that requires accuracy from tee-to-green and consistently strong putting.

Purse: $7.9 million

2022 champion: Hideki Matsuyama (-23)

TV coverage

Thursday: Sky Sports Golf from 5pm

Friday: Sky Sports Golf from 5pm

Saturday: Sky Sports Golf from 7:30pm and Sky Sports Main Event from 12am

Sunday: Sky Sports Golf from 11pm

2023 Sony Open betting tips

The Banker: Keith Mitchell @ 35/1 with Bet365

Keith Mitchell was in solid form throughout most of 2022, and although it did not lead to a win, 2023 looks like it could be a big one for the American. We know at his best he is capable of winning – he showed that at the 2019 Honda Classic, and whilst he is yet to follow that up, he has contended in good fields since – most notably the 2021 CJ Cup where he had his chances to win, but for a poor Saturday.

Mitchell is on the periphery of the top-50 in the OWGR, as he sits at 57th, and a big start to the season could see him climb into that all important number. He can get that run started with a strong finish at the 2023 Sony Open, an event I think he can win.

The former Georgia Bulldog has made four of five cuts here, with a best finish of 7th, which came 12 months ago, and now it is time for him to piece it together here, for all four rounds. 

When 16th here in 2019, Mitchell was 3rd going into the final round, and would have needed a 7-under final round to beat Matt Kuchar, but he fell away as he clearly pushed too hard for the win.

Two years later, Mitchell came back and improved again, finishing 14th, where middle rounds of 62 and 63 helped him bounce back from a disappointing 71 on the opening day. That left him inside the top 10 going into Sunday, so he’s been on the first page of the leaderboard multiple times here.

He was never contending when 7th last year, climbing to that position with a final round 63, but it continues to show he has the knack for low rounds here, and after gaining a bunch of experience here now, he’s ready to win in Hawaii.

The Each-Way Play: Mackenzie Hughes @ 66/1 with Bet365

Slightly ahead of Mitchell in terms of stature on the PGA Tour, is Mackenzie Hughes, who has two PGA Tour wins to Mitchell’s one. It is worth comparing the two players, as like Mitchell, Hughes has shown signs of playing well at this course, without putting four rounds together.

On his debut here, Hughes finished 27th, but did so by shooting a 65 and three 68s which was tidy enough, and then in 2021 when finishing a best of 19th Hughes opened with a 65 to sit inside the top 10 on Thursday, and then posted 65-66 over the weekend to bounce back from a mediocre 69 on the Friday. 

Given his current form, which includes the win at Sanderson, a 16th at the Houston Open, and two strong rounds last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, I think Hughes can contend on a course that should suit his game and has done so in the past. 

Hughes finished 16th in Houston, but for the most part he was better placed, as he opened with a 66 and followed with two 68s on a tough golf course, to sit 8th going into payday. He fell away on Sunday, which was a shame, but overall, he showed he’s still in good form.

The Canadian then came right out of the blocks last week in Hawaii with an opening round 66 to sit 5th on day one. He also closed with a 65 – both of which were promising rounds – on a course that isn’t really made for his strengths. A more suited test this week, Hughes can contend at Waialae and make a run at a third PGA Tour title.

The Each-Way Play: Adam Svensson @ 75/1 with Bet365

Adam Svensson won the RSM Classic back in November, and as a result played in his first Sentry Tournament of Champions, where were it not for a cold putter, he may have shown some signs of life. 

This will be the first time he heads to the Sony Open having played the week before, and I think that could be a big factor. Svensson opened his debut appearance here with a 61 back in 2019, and while he eventually finished 43rd, straight away he showed a liking for the course.

A 7th place finish for Svensson last year, where he shot a 64, a 65, and two 67s suggests the Canadian has a good feel for this layout, and it is somewhere he can contend at, throughout his career. 

Now a winner for the first time, Svensson should have added confidence, and now away from an elite field like the Tournament of Champions, he can excel once again. The RSM Classic win also comes with its own merit, as we have seen crossover between the two events, so I am only buoyed further by where that victory came.

The Long Shot: David Lingmerth @ 200/1 with Bet365

At 200/1, David Lingmerth is clearly a wildcard for me this week, but that is something you can attribute to his whole career so far. At his very best, he is a winner on both the PGA Tour and Korn Ferry Tour, the latter as recently as last August, and he’s also finished 2nd in a Players Championship.

The Swede beat Justin Rose in a playoff at the 2015 Memorial Tournament to win his first PGA Tour title – with the Englishman won against one of the very best players in the world at the time. 

In 2013 and 2016 he lost in a playoff at the now named The American Express event, so all in all, throughout his career so far he’s come close to three PGA Tour wins, has two Korn Ferry Tour wins ten years apart, and has also lost another playoff at that level. So while he’s been out of sight out of mind for a while, the 35 year old is someone to pay attention to when in form, and at the right course. 

Before the Christmas break, Lingmerth started his new PGA Tour season off with three missed cuts, but what followed was shades of the Lingmerth of old. 11th at the Bermuda Championship, T8 in Mexico, and T10 at the RSM Classic are all results that correlate nicely to this, particularly in Mexico at El Camaleon. 

In five starts at this course, Lingmerth has never finished better than 13th, but that week he opened with a 65 and closed with a 64, to show he is capable of scoring around this layout, and I am confident in the form he is in, he can play well this week. Winning might be tough to see at this early stage of his potential comeback, but a top-8 finish isn’t out of the question in this field.

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