Why player research is essential when betting on sports
summary
$3.2 billion is wagered each year on sports bets – and that’s only in America. With so much money being spent, sports betting sites are flush with cash and that means they have plenty for you to win from them – so long as you make the right bets. If you want to make winning sports bets you need to do your player research. Why? Because it helps you predict the future – like Biff’s book of sporting events from Back to the Future II.
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Sports betting is based on probability
Unlike online casino gambling, where your own individual skill at a particular game plays a big part in the outcome of your betting, sports bets are based on probability. Sports betting sites make a mathematical calculation of how likely a certain outcome is. And what’s one of the key factors sports betting sites use to make this calculation? The form of the teams and players involved and the probability of it continuing/changing.
Sports betting companies use a huge number of different factors and variables to determine the probable outcome of a team or player’s performance in a game:
- Which teams and individuals have they played previously?
- Are there any injuries being carried by key players?
- What are the upcoming conditions and how do they fare under them?
- Have there been any tactical/managerial recent changes?
These things all have a real impact on the outcome of sports matches. Why is this important to you? Because it means that if you carry out player research into these areas (and more), you can get closer to establishing how likely the odds of your bet are to come through.
Betting on sports is like playing the stock market
Stock market traders make their money by predicting the future, betting on whether they expect organizations to rise or fall. Sports betting follows the same principle as the stock market gambling, which means replicating the research-based and data-driven approach as traders can help you predict the future.
Research is used by traders to establish which stocks have the potential to increase in value. In sports betting it gives you the ability to work out which odds have been undervalued by sports betting sites – the wagers that are more likely to come good than the gambling company setting the odds believe. By researching the form and condition of players, you can spot opportunities for getting additional value from your bets.
Player research gives you insider knowledge
One of the great things about sports betting is that you can make so many different types of wagers – not just on the result of a game. Player research can become your version of gaining “insider knowledge” about a range of bets. For instance, player research:
Tells you how sustainable performances are
Great if you’re making a bet on individual points or goals. For example, in the soccer Champions League Final, the odds of Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah scoring were the same. This is because they finished the season with the same number of goals. However, if you researched these players you would find that during 2019, the two players had scored the following goals totals:
- Mane: 17
- Salah: 10
You may then have predicted that Mane was more likely to score, as he was the player in better form ahead of that match.
Gives you an indication of future honors
One of the most famous bets in golf was made by Gerry McIlroy in 2004. Gerry bet £200 on his son, Rory, winning the Open Championship within ten years, getting odds of 500-1. When Rory won the Open it gave Gerry a windfall of £50,000 (having split his bet 50/50 with a friend).
As Ladbrokes explain, when talking about Gerry McIlroy’s bet: “Nine out of 10 times, these bets come to nothing, but on this occasion, the punters definitely knew more than we did. And we can only doff our cap to their confidence and foresight.” If you know something that sports betting sites don’t, then you can make money.
Now, you won’t necessarily have a child who is capable of winning the Open but through research, you can make predictions on the future success of certain players.
Researching players won’t give you the ability to see the future, but it will help you to predict it. Not all of your predictions will come good, but by putting in the time and effort you can certainly increase the chances of your bets coming good.
Tom Irwin
Tom is a lifetime golfer, now over 30 years playing the game. 2023 marks 10 years in golf publishing and he is still holding down a + handicap at Alwoodley in Leeds. He has played over 600 golf courses, and has been a member of at least four including his first love Louth, in Lincolnshire. Tom likes unbranded clothing, natural fibres, and pencil bags. Seacroft in Lincolnshire is where it starts and ends.
