NCG writers predict what will (and won’t) happen at the Open
In our Open preview, the NCG team answers the usual questions as every Briton’s favourite week of the golfing year rolls around…
Dan Murphy, editor
Winner: Sergio Garcia, of course. I always thought the Claret Jug would be his first major but I can take it being his second. Ten top-10s in the last 16 Opens tells its own story and this is the year he goes one better. I simply can’t see anyone else winning this year. (But then I never can…)
Winning score: It’s been tough at Birkdale in the last couple of Opens, but mainly due to weather rather than the course itself. It’s going to be sunny in Southport this time and that will result in an 8-under 272 being Garcia’s winning mark.
Player to watch: Don’t be surprised when Zach Johnson gets in the top 10. Especially if it is a tough week for scoring. He’s so good at finding greens and doesn’t care how pretty it looks.
Surprise flop: Could be wrong but Tommy Fleetwood is going to be the subject of so much attention following his heroics in the past month. I can’t him coping with his new-found star-status and being the home favourite.
Most looking forward to: Apart from Sergio finding fulfilment, my favourite moment of the Open comes when I park myself in a grandstand, whose position I have researched in advance, at the far end of the course on Thursday morning and watch the Open take shape. Ideally, it will be bright and breezy.
What will happen: I think Padraig Harrington and Ian Poulter will roll back the years and both finish in the top 20. It won’t quite be 2008 all over again but I think they will both play prominent roles in the week.
What won’t happen: We won’t be saluting another first-time major champion. That run has to come to an end some time. And that time is now.
Alex Perry, digital editor
Winner: This is the most open Open since I can remember. I’ll go for Jordan Spieth. I’ve been convinced by all the “Spiethy course” talk…
Winning score: Pluck a number out the air. The last time the Open was won with a score over par was here at Birkdale in ’08. Since then, the winning score has ranged from -2 to -20. I’ll plump for a 10-under 270 to lift the ol’ Jug.
Player to watch: I said Jon Rahm at the Masters and I said Jon Rahm at the US Open. Well, Jon Rahm has just come over here and won the Irish Open so he knows his way around a links course. Keep an eye on the big-hitting Spaniard…
Surprise flop: I really don’t want to say local favourite Tommy Fleetwood, so I’ll say Rory McIlroy instead. Horribly out of form, and I watched him hit a few shots in practice on Monday and it wasn’t pretty.
Most looking forward to: The best week of the golfing year. Not by far, because, well, the Masters. If you haven’t been before, make plans for next year.
What will happen: While my money is on Spieth, I’ve convinced myself we’re going to have a Todd Hamilton or Ben Curtis-type winner.
What won’t happen: Me sticking a quid on 2017 Champion Golfer of the Year David Drysdale.
Mark Townsend, deputy editor
Winner: Louis Oosthuizen, same as most years and generally based on what he did at St Andrews and how nicely he swings the club. And that he doesn’t seem too injured at the moment. Ross Fisher and Hideki Matsuyama to join him on the podium.
Winning score: The rough won’t be too punishing and, given some light winds, the score will be 9-under, the same as Tom Watson in ‘83.
Player to watch: Chris Wood will feature again. He’s not in the best of form this year but getting back on the links will flick the switch and he’ll have a good week.
Surprise flop: The favourite Dustin Johnson to do nothing. How times change, before he slipped on those steps at his rental home at Augusta he seemed unbeatable. Now he looks relatively ordinary.
Most looking forward to: Nick McCarthy teeing off with his dad Dave on the bag and being followed by half the members of Moortown. They might not be teeing off until gone 4pm on Thursday afternoon but that doesn’t matter and is a big chunk of the fun of the first two days at the Open
What will happen: I’ll panic at the last minute and back both Rose and Casey like I do in every other major.
What won’t happen: I’ll get any money back.
James Savage, equipment editor
Winner: Justin Rose has found a bit of form at the right time and it seems written that he wins his first Open at Birkdale.
Winning score: I can’t see it being as tough as 2008 and no one wants an over-par winning score do they? I’ll go for 6-under.
Player to watch: Can I say Patrick Reed again? He’s 66/1.
Surprise flop: Another shout for Dustin Johnson. Not sure he’s the red-hot favourite the bookies are making out. Seems a bit undercooked at the moment to me.
Most looking forward to: Seeing how Joe Dean from my home club, Hillsborough, gets on. And also following some of the other qualifiers.
What will happen: We’ll see endless clips of Rose holing out from the rough in 1998.
What won’t happen: Rory McIlroy missing his tee time after opting for one more go on the waltzers at Southport Pleasureland.
Steve Carroll, club editor
Winner: He’ll tease me, and probably let me down, but I have to think Sergio Garcia will one day win the Open. He’s got the Masters, why not win at Birkdale? Mark O’Meara managed to win both in 1998.
Winning score: Take Padraig Harrington’s slog-fest in 2008 out of the equation and history suggests a tally around 9-under.
Player to watch: Ian Poulter is getting back to form, loves this form of golf and performed brilliantly at Birkdale in 2008.
Surprise flop: Some pundits are already handing Tommy Fleetwood the Claret Jug but it’s a lot of pressure, and a big ask, to perform on a course you know so well – and where everyone expects you to do well.
Most looking forward to: The atmosphere and the spectacle. There’s nothing like watching top class golf, getting among the spectators and hearing the roars round an Open venue.
What will happen: We’ll on bang on incessantly about who was on the wrong side of the draw. Deal with it.
What won’t happen: There shouldn’t be a runaway winner. The course should bunch up the field pretty tightly. It will make for an exciting weekend.
Joe Urquhart, social media editor
Winner: Rickie Fowler will get it together, finally.
Winning score: I reckon -12 sounds about right.
Player to watch: Alex Noren loves Birkdale after a strong performance in 2008 and if he can get his putter hot then there isn’t many in better form this season. (Sorry, Tommy.)
Surprise flop: The obvious one is Rory McIlroy, but given his recent form it wouldn’t be much of a surprise. I’ll go with Henrik Stenson as defending champion to miss the cut.
Most looking forward to: Watching the world’s best take on the links up closer and personal. It’s one of the most enthralling four days of golf each year. There’s nothing quite like Open week.
What will happen: Someone will shoot 63 after burning the edge on the 18th for birdie. The curse will strike again.
What won’t happen: Four days of blazing sunshine and calm conditions. Lots of wind and rain please, mother nature!
James Broadhurst, production editor
Winner: I’m also going for Rickie Fowler. This is the tournament where it all finally comes together.
Winning score: Nothing too extreme in either direction. Nine-under.
Player to watch: Steve Stricker. He was tied-16th at the US Open, tied-16th at the Masters and 4th at last year’s Open. He’s a player who tends to save his best performances for majors.
Surprise flop: I could easily see Jason Day’s mini slump continuing at Birkdale. I think he will miss the cut, or be close to the cut line.
Most looking forward to: Seeing if the weather turns nasty. I want players to be tested to their absolute limit.
What will happen: It will be one of the one tightest majors in years. Lots of players in a play-off, please.
What won’t happen: We will have to wait at least another year to see another Englishman crowned Open champion. It has been far too long since Nick Faldo lifted the Claret Jug.
Craig Middleton, digital journalist
Winner: Despite missing Bones, I fancy Phil Mickelson to lift his second Claret Jug.
Winning score: Depends on the wind, really. I’ll go for 10-under.
Player to watch: Don’t ask me why but I’m sensing a good week for Jamie Lovemark.
Surprise flop: Rickie Fowler will fall short again. And I think the thought of wearing an untucked shirt on Saturday will affect his concentration.
Most looking forward to: Spending more money than I can afford in the official Open shop on things like mugs and ball markers.
What will happen: Jamie Lovemark will finish dead last and I’ll once again begin the process of wondering why I have such feelings.
What won’t happen: Me ever using anything I buy from the official Open shop.
Matt Beedle, staff writer
Winner: My gut feeling says Justin Rose and I’ve put a fiver on him. So Jon Rahm.
Winning score? If the wind and rain comes then I reckon the winning score will be around 2- or 3-over par. If it stays away then I think it could be about 5-under.
Player to watch: I don’t know if Tommy Fleetwood would be classed as a massive shock if he got close to lifting the Claret Jug given his form, but he’ll certainly be one of the players to watch.
Surprise flop: Rory McIlroy isn’t in the best form but I reckon he’ll rise to the occasion, so I’ll back Jason Day to be on an early flight home.
Most looking forward to: Visiting Royal Birkdale for the first time and getting to watch a Championship Sunday up close and see the Claret Jug being presented.
What will happen: Fans watching at home will lose count at the number of times commentators and pundits say it’s “good to have Phil back” after he missed the US Open a month ago.
What won’t happen: Me having to hear it because I’ll be there. (Did I mention that already?)
The Open Podcast: Who can stop the American invasion?
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