Augusta awaits (Part two)

It is a myth that Augusta is some kind of big-hitters' paradise, even now that it measures close to 7,500 yards. On the contrary, it is hard to think of another layout in the world ­ bar the Old Course ­ less forgiving to a blaster's philosophy.

Yes, the par fives on the back nine become nothing more than a drive and a mid-iron but without strategy and skill even a pair of eagles at 13 and 15 will not make up for the disasters that await on virtually every other hole.

Those who insist the shotmakers can not flourish any longer in Georgia should look at the heartening performances of Messrs Clark and Olazabal a year ago. Both are way down in the PGA Tour's ’driving length' statistic yet Clark finished second and two-time champion Ollie tied-third.

And while it is sad that the likes of Nick Faldo, winner here in 1989, 90 and 96, are no longer competitive, that is what inevitably happens to great sportsmen. Faldo, who will be absent for the first time since 1987 as he moves in the commentary box with ABC, is unable to compete not on account of Augusta's added length, but because he is almost twice the age of most of the rest of the field and several years past his best. Sad, yes. And also inevitable, but a Faldo in his prime would still be hard to beat here.

As would Ernie Els, another whose game is perfectly suited to the twin demands of power and precision. Yet following five successive top-10 finishes that culminated in Mickelson denying the South African in 2004, Els has been nowhere to be seen for the past two years. And indeed it is fully 32 months since he has been in any kind of Major contention.

Nor has the recent form of his conqueror three years ago been anything to strike fear into Tiger. The defending champion whose two-driver strategy proved so successful last April clearly took his late demise at Winged Foot badly. Indeed, of all the Americans who under-performed at the K Club in the Ryder Cup he was the worst offender. Just like Els, he has much to prove, which is a strange state of affairs for a man who was won two of the last three Green Jackets.

Beyond the usual suspects, expect a strong showing from the Australian contingent that only seems to get progressively stronger. Adam Scott has achieved a career-high world ranking of three in recent times and simply has to improve on his previous efforts at Augusta, where he has a best finish in five attempts of T9th in 2002 and has never broken 70.

Meanwhile US Open champion Geoff Ogilvy seems to play well in just about every Major championship these days. His record in the eight in which he has played since the 2004 USPGA reads: T24, T28, T5, T6, T16, 1, T16, T9. This is seriously impressive stuff and even though last year marked his Masters debut, he should not be discounted.

Beyond this pair, evergreen Stuart Appleby and Robert Allenby are both in good form while Nick O'Hern improves by the year and the talented Aaron Baddeley has made his way into the world top 50, largely thanks to his second PGA Tour win at the FBR Open.

Which brings us to the European contingent and their continuing pursuit of that elusive first Major of the 21st century.

Collectively, they are surely too talented a bunch not to claim one soon, but there is little compelling evidence to suggest it will come at Augusta, which only goes to show how spoiled we were 15 years ago when we almost came to expect a European winner thanks to the feats of Nick, Seve, Sandy, Ian, Jose Maria and Bernhard.

Sergio Garcia would appear to be the best equipped if only his prolonged struggles on the greens showed any sign of abating, which frankly they do not. The talented Spaniard will struggle to claim any such title, let alone a Green Jacket, until he starts consistently averaging 30 putts or fewer per round.

Beyond him, a rejuvenated Paul Casey will certainly fancy his chances and, having already won this year, is in good form. His bold putting, though, is a combination of the fearless and the foolhardy because aggressive putts that miss at Augusta can end up off the green, rather than merely rolling a few feet by. That said, the Englishman is an exceptional driver of the ball, and if he can add versatility to an occasionally one-dimensional approach he has the ball-striking ability to excel.

Luke Donald has the game to flourish anywhere, though the two other American Majors remain his most likely source of a breakthrough win, while David Howell's continuing struggle with a back injury makes his form hard to judge. Away from the younger stars, perhaps that perennial Augusta specialist Olazabal will once again prove to be our best hope.

Yet for all the promise, and the fact there have never been more European players in the field with a realistic chance of success, it is hard to imagine that a certain American will not be found at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon. Two years ago, Mickelson arrived as defending champion and left after helping his less-than-great-friend Woods into another Green Jacket.

The likelihood is that he will be performing exactly the same task again in 2007.