PGA Golf: More betting advice from our experienced tipsters

Yesterday, two of our staff writers revealed who they have put their money on at the PGA Championship. Today, our Editor weighs in.

Dan Murphy

Biggest 2013 win: Ken Duke to win the Travelers (£200)
Budget: £20
Expected return: £5k

One to avoid

Henrik Stenson @ 25/1

There’s always one form horse who gets backed in too short in the run-up to a Major and this time it’s Stenson’s turn. The Swede is playing fantastically well and has finished in the top three in his last three starts at the Scottish Open, Open and WGC Bridgestone Invitational. That makes him too obvious for this week and 25/1 just doesn’t represent value.

Another one to avoid

Justin Rose @ 28/1

Good a player as he is, I would look elsewhere this week. I think it’s very hard having won your first Major to re-set your goals for the remainder of the season. You can assume that his life has been anything but normal for the past seven weeks since Merion and it’s too much to ask to expect him to add a second title so soon afterwards.

One to keep you interested

Jason Day @ 45/1

Curiously Day has only won once on the PGA Tour, but that doesn’t seem to stop him contending in virtually every Major. He could have won both of the first two this season, but still placed twice giving punters a healthy return on investment. A niggling wrist injury is a concern but he says he is ready to go. And the tougher it is the more he likes it.

A punt

Ernie Els @ 80/1

In all honesty it’s been hard to work out since Lytham whether Els is in graceful decline after winning a swansong Major or should be thought of as a rejuvenated contender. On a hunch, I’ll go with the latter. He finished 13th at Augusta, 4th at Merion and 26th at Muirfield, which is solid. At the Open he clearly felt he was playing well enough to contend but just couldn’t quite put a string of holes together. I reckon this is a big price to get him at.