Who to back at the Italian Open
The creation of the Rolex Series last year was done with the purpose of putting the European Tour on the map, and as a result, give the big-name players an incentive to opt for European events rather than the PGA Tour.
To put it simply, it has worked. Alex Noren won the first one at the BMW PGA Championship last year, and since then, we’ve had Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose, Branden Grace and Francesco Molinari all go on to win Rolex Series events. All of these players currently sit inside the top-31 in the world rankings.
That’s fairly eye-opening, and as we head into another Rolex Series event in the form of the Italian Open this week, it is worth keeping in mind that the classy players are extremely motivated to win, perhaps even more so than normal with big money and Ryder Cup points up for grabs.
Italian Open betting: Keel’s top tips
From a betting viewpoint, it’ll pay to stick with the top of the market. To my eye, the best bet looks to be Ian Poulter.
The Englishman won his first professional title at the Italian Open in 2000 and won it again just two years later. Admittedly, both of those victories came on different golf courses to this week’s Gardagolf CC, but Poulter is one of only a few in this field to have experienced playing at this course. That came back in 2003, where Poulter was defending his title and went on to finish 18th.
It probably won’t make much difference, but it certainly won’t hurt and of the market leaders, he seems to be the one that stands out. With Poulter returning back to winning ways two months ago, he’s in top form and he can win his first regular European Tour title since the Volvo World Match Play seven years ago. Poults certainly fits the bill of being a classy player, and a return to Italy – where he has fond memories – could spark his second win of the year, and further his claims for a Ryder Cup spot.
The trio at the front – Molinari, Noren and Fleetwood – all have obvious chances, and they’re priced shortly as a result. Let’s leave those alone and head to Matthew Fitzpatrick and Rafa Cabrera Bello, with the latter given the nod at a slightly bigger price of 25/1.
While Fitzpatrick is undoubtedly the more prolific of the two, the Englishman hasn’t been at his best for a while now so I’d give the advantage to the Spaniard, who boasts a stronger world ranking and put in a much more eye-catching performance at the Players Championship in finishing 17th.
Cabrera Bello tied for 8th last week at Wentworth while hitting the most fairways in the field. It was the irons that let him down, and as that is an area of his game that he’s normally very strong with, we can expect significant improvement this week to catapult into contention.
With two big events taking place this week on either side of the Atlantic, make sure you check out who we’re backing for the Memorial Tournament on the PGA Tour.
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Tom Irwin
Tom is a lifetime golfer, now over 30 years playing the game. 2023 marks 10 years in golf publishing and he is still holding down a + handicap at Alwoodley in Leeds. He has played over 600 golf courses, and has been a member of at least four including his first love Louth, in Lincolnshire. Tom likes unbranded clothing, natural fibres, and pencil bags. Seacroft in Lincolnshire is where it starts and ends.
