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I always like it when the PGA tour moves from the West Coast to the East for the Florida swing as it means earlier finishes at night! The Honda Classic is played on the PGA National course which proves a stern test and that looks especially so this week with wind and rain forecast for much of the four days.
I just don’t get the price on Patrick Reed this week with players much shorter in the betting or the same price who don’t seem to have anywhere near the same killer instinct as Reed. In his short career he now has four wins including a WGC event in Florida (when we were on) and the Tournament of Champions last month. He has improved in each start here and I don’t see quite why he has drifted in price quite so much. His Betfair price in his last three events since his win have been 16,30 and 20 and I must admit I jumped in early at 46 and have added a bit more at 50 – total stake is £120 @ 46/1.
Chris Kirk also knows how to get the job done with three PGA tour wins and a couple on the Web.com tour. He seems to do well on courses where he has a few starts under his belt although his win at Annandale (another Jack Nicklaus course) came after just one missed cut. He has plenty of experience around PGA National with a best of 12th last year and he does seem to play well on exposed breezy courses. A top finish at Muirfield Village (yet another Nicklaus course) seems to be indicative of a good finish here and Kirk was 4th there last year. Again I went in early with £50 ew 66/1 and £75 80 on Betfair – adding a further £10 90 this morning.
Luke Guthrie maybe out of form but he has a great scoring record here with a 3rd in 2013 (including a second round 63) and 24th last year when he shot a 65 in round three when paired with Tiger Woods. His only top ten last year came at Muirfield Village so he may well have an affinity for Nicklaus courses. I have had £50 470 Betfair to hopefully trade and £30 top ten 28/1.
I was a bit annoyed that Patrick Rodgers won on the Web.com tour the week after I tipped him up and I will just have a win only saver on the former World amateur number one just in case he can build on that on the main tour £30 380 Betfair.
Just a small wager in the first round leader market on past winner Camilo Villegas who led here in 2013 and actually still missed the cut! £10 e/w 125/1.