Who to back at the DP World Tour Championship
DP World Tour Championship betting: Steve’s top tips
Three remain in the hunt to win the Race to Dubai and, unsurprisingly, two of them lead the way in the betting for the DP World Tour Championship.
Justin Rose (6/1) has won back-to-back tournaments and is the heavy favourite, while Sergio Garcia (11/1) isn’t far behind.
It may surprise some of you to see Race to Dubai leader Tommy Fleetwood (25/1) at such a big price given his productive year. He may be worth a small dabble at those odds.
I’d feared the Lancastrian was trying to protect his lead and coast to the title. Rose’s stunning run of form, however, has put the hammer down and Fleetwood responded with a top 10 at the Nedbank Golf Challenge last week.
You’ll hear me continually bang on about horses for courses so it’s interesting to note Fleetwood finished 9th at the Jumeirah Golf Estates last year.
Matt Fitzpatrick (16/1) has played the DP World Tour Championship twice and finished 4th and 1st. This is something of an oddity because conventional wisdom says you need to be a long hitter to prosper on the Earth course.
The Sheffield star is far from the biggest hitter. What he is, though, is extremely solid.
He is 10th this year in stroke average on the European Tour, he hasn’t finished worse than 15th in his last seven events. Tied 8th in South Africa last week, he was hindered by a horrible second-round 77 before recovering strongly with two 69s.
We know Fitzpatrick repeats good form on courses he likes. He won the European Masters this season, for example, after finishing second and tied seventh the previous two years. It would be no surprise at all to see the defending champion put in another strong showing.
With form in mind, Victor Dubuisson (25/1) would also be expected to challenge after his exploits at the Nedbank last week. He’s finished 3rd, 2nd and 4th in Dubai in the last four years and that feels like a compelling reason to get stuck in again.
You’ll have to pay for it this time. 45/1 a week ago, that is almost halved this time around. He’s hard to ignore but just be aware you’re now paying a premium.
I’ve been down on the form of Jon Rahm (14/1) for a few weeks, having concluded the Spaniard was simply playing too much golf. But after missing the cut at Valderrama and disappointing in Shanghai, he wisely took a couple of weeks off and he now intrigues at that price.
DP World Tour Championship betting: Steve’s each-way bets
Anyone else notice Charl Schwartzel (28/1) sneaking around the fringes of the leaderboard at the Nedbank?
Nine shots off Branden Grace’s winning total doesn’t seem too much to get excited about. But on a difficult scoring week, the South African’s finish of tied-12th raises an eyebrow.
It was his best pay day, on either the European or PGA Tours, since the European Open at the end of July. It may suggest a player finally returning to form.
If it does, we should see it in Dubai. Schwartzel’s record here in recent years is formidable.
He’s twice finished 3rd, including last year, and also fourth in 2015. The price may be slightly on the skinny side but it’s hard to argue with those numbers.
Soren Kjeldsen (66/1) has frustrated me this season but, at the price, I’m dipping my toe in the water again.
Like Fitzpatrick, his ambitions in Sun City were all but ended after a second round 78. But like his colleague, he also finished impressively thanks to a weekend of 69 and 68.
That was his second top 20 showing in three events. Tenth in Dubai in 2015 and fourth last year, I’d expect him to belie his odds if he can just string together four consistent rounds.
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Steve Carroll
A journalist for 25 years, Steve has been immersed in club golf for almost as long. A former club captain, he has passed the Level 3 Rules of Golf exam with distinction having attended the R&A's prestigious Tournament Administrators and Referees Seminar.
Steve has officiated at a host of high-profile tournaments, including Open Regional Qualifying, PGA Fourball Championship, English Men's Senior Amateur, and the North of England Amateur Championship. In 2023, he made his international debut as part of the team that refereed England vs Switzerland U16 girls.
A part of NCG's Top 100s panel, Steve has a particular love of links golf and is frantically trying to restore his single-figure handicap. He currently floats at around 11.
Steve plays at Close House, in Newcastle, and York GC, where he is a member of the club's matches and competitions committee and referees the annual 36-hole scratch York Rose Bowl.
Having studied history at Newcastle University, he became a journalist having passed his NTCJ exams at Darlington College of Technology.
What's in Steve's bag: TaylorMade Stealth 2 driver, 3-wood, and hybrids; TaylorMade Stealth 2 irons; TaylorMade Hi-Toe, Ping ChipR, Sik Putter.
