The winner: Bubba Watson
There’s a perception that Bubba doesn’t travel very well but, if that’s true, this tournament has been the exception.
Take out his tied-35th last year and his results in at the HSBC in Shanghai are very impressive indeed. He beat Tim Clark in a playoff in 2014 and was eighth the year before.
Also contrary to public option, his form of late hasn’t been too bad. Top 10s in the Olympics and the Tour Championship and a top 20 at the BMW Championship show that, in bits and pieces, he’s producing some decent stuff.
Of course, with Bubba, it depends how he’s feeling at any given moment. But, at an event he clearly likes, I think a best price of 45/1 is more than fair.
The each-way back: Paul Casey
I feel like Paul Casey is in my portfolio every week at the moment but, while he is continuing to play well, we’ve got to continue to ride the train at prices of 22/1 for the HSBC.
Tied 3rd at the Safeway Open, after that momentous run in the FedEx Cup playoffs, he fell away after a good start at the CIMB Classic last weekend.
That would normally set the alarm bells ringing – he has played a lot of golf in the past couple of months – but his form in China is exceptional.
Fourth here in 2011 and 6th the year before, he’s racked up five top 10s at Sheshan.
Until he shows clear signs of decline, the money keeps going down.
The dark horse: Ross Fisher
If we’re banking on course form being decisive, then Ross Fisher must also be in the staking plan at a striking 66/1.
Third last year, he’s also been runner-up at the course in 2007. He hasn’t played in this event since 2010 but even then he was a top 20 contender and was in great shape with a round to go before faltering.
Great weeks at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, and the European Open before that, show a player in good touch.
Another to have on the shortlist is Louis Oosthuizen. Two top 10s and four top 20s in the event should get you a run for your money at 66s.