Let’s try and find some value in the place market by focusing on a couple of players at bigger prices, starting with Scott Jamieson (125/1, 6 places).
The Scot, like Wallace, has an excellent record on Player-designed layouts, and indeed on South African turf.
Jamieson’s only professional win came in this country at the Nelson Mandela Championship back in 2012 at Royal Durban, and his best ever performance from an OWGR perspective came at last year’s Nedbank Challenge when he put on a terrific tussle with home favourite Grace, missing out by just a shot. He also has form at DLF, when 3rd last year.
The 35-year-old finished 4th on his last appearance at Leopard Creek two years ago, and he was also 3rd in 2012, so this is clearly a course that he’s comfortable on.
Jamieson missed the cut last week, but that was his first start since the British Masters in October so he was probably fighting a little competitive rust.
— Scott Jamieson (@scottjamieson54) October 18, 2018
Back on a track he’s comfortable on this week, and with the fabled Nappy Factor active, he should go well.
At a slightly shorter price, Matthieu Pavon (66/1, 7 places) looks an interesting runner.
The Frenchman went close two weeks ago in Mauritius when runner-up and, despite a missed cut last week, he has a good chance of building on his only effort of 25th around Leopard Creek two years ago.
That performance came immediately after securing his European Tour card at the Challenge Tour Grand Final in Oman, and he struck the ball beautifully on his first start as a European Tour member – recording stats of 2nd in GIR, 3rd in driving accuracy and 5th in driving distance.
Clearly this is a course that he took to on first sight, so if he can roll in a few more putts than he did in 2016, he could go close this week.
Finally, closing with one of the home hopes, Bryce Easton (175/1, 8 places) looks a big price.
The 31-year-old is a three-time Sunshine Tour winner, earlier this year securing his third title in Zimbabwe to break a winless run spanning over six years.
Easton was 3rd last week thanks to a superb final round 66 to charge up the leaderboard, and with two top-20 finishes here at Leopard Creek – including 10th two years ago – he looks a decent each-way bet at the prices.