Betting tips: Who you should back at the WGC-Match Play
The one to be on: Rory McIlroy
I woke up to news of the ‘tough’ group that Rory McIlroy must negotiate if he is to make the knockout stages in Texas on Friday and I couldn’t wait to get on board at 15/2.
I realise I’m going to look a bit stupid if this doesn’t come off but that’s the life of a tipster and I’ll be stunned if McIlroy doesn’t utterly dominate Emiliano Grillo, who is coming off a final round collapse at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, Gary Woodland, a player who always flatters to deceive in my opinion, and Soren Kjeldsen.
It’s hard not to be impressed with the way the four-time major winner has begun the campaign and his 65-69 finish at Bay Hill at the weekend almost bagged him his first win of the season.
McIlroy is a titan at match play. His Ryder Cup efforts notwithstanding, he was a semi-finalist in Austin last year, won the event in 2015 and lost in the final in 2012.
Keen to get as much competitive action under his belt as possible with the Masters approaching quickly on the horizon, he’ll be motivated for a long stay.
The each-way backs: Thomas Pieters and Paul Casey
Europe’s leading point scorer at last year’s Ryder Cup, Thomas Pieters was a beast in the format – crushing JB Holmes 3&2 in the singles after teaming up so effectively with McIlroy.
I’m surprised to see the Belgian at 50s as his group looks eminently winnable. Top seed Bubba Watson is in miserable form and you’d expect Pieters to account for Scott Piercy.
That leaves Jhonnatan Vegas as a potential spoke in the wheel but, despite the Venezuelan’s relatively good form on the PGA Tour this year, his short game can leave something to be desired. He’ll need to be right at the top of his form over three days to progress.
Pieters didn’t get past the group stages last year, when he was ranked 55th in the world, but a lot has changed since then.
Paul Casey is not in the same touch that saw him hug the top of the leaderboard at the FedEx play-offs, but 40/1 still feels a bit high for a player that has top 20s to his name at the Honda Classic and in the WGC-Mexico Championship.
His fine record in this event – final appearances in 2009 and 2010 along with a last eight showing in 2015 – has to be respected.
Casey failed to win a match at Austin Country Club last year and it’s a concern that the course might not suit. But I’ll take the chance that familiarity breeds content for the Englishman.
If Louis Oosthuizen can get out of his group, no straightforward task given it includes Hideki Matsuyama, Ross Fisher and Jim Furyk, he could once again ride the wave all the way to the final.
The dark horse: Jason Dufner
Strange to be putting up a major champion in this bracket, but Dufner’s in a group that includes Patrick Reed (40/1) and the oddsmakers are always going to err on the side of caution given his Ryder Cup heroics.
Finding a big priced horse that’s going to get out of a group is easier said than done. Top seeds dominated the format 12 months ago and we must find a player that’s going to cause an upset.
At 125/1, I think Dufner could be that man. Reed has been in very average form this season – a tied 12th at the CareerBuilder Challenge his best. He’s failed to finish better than tied 38th since.
Dufner, on the other hand, has been in very solid shape: tied 14th at the Honda Classic, tied 23rd in Mexico, and tied 11th at the Valspar Championship.
If he can negotiate this group, which also includes Brooks Koepka and Kevin Kisner, he could go far.
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Steve Carroll
A journalist for 25 years, Steve has been immersed in club golf for almost as long. A former club captain, he has passed the Level 3 Rules of Golf exam with distinction having attended the R&A's prestigious Tournament Administrators and Referees Seminar.
Steve has officiated at a host of high-profile tournaments, including Open Regional Qualifying, PGA Fourball Championship, English Men's Senior Amateur, and the North of England Amateur Championship. In 2023, he made his international debut as part of the team that refereed England vs Switzerland U16 girls.
A part of NCG's Top 100s panel, Steve has a particular love of links golf and is frantically trying to restore his single-figure handicap. He currently floats at around 11.
Steve plays at Close House, in Newcastle, and York GC, where he is a member of the club's matches and competitions committee and referees the annual 36-hole scratch York Rose Bowl.
Having studied history at Newcastle University, he became a journalist having passed his NTCJ exams at Darlington College of Technology.
What's in Steve's bag: TaylorMade Stealth 2 driver, 3-wood, and hybrids; TaylorMade Stealth 2 irons; TaylorMade Hi-Toe, Ping ChipR, Sik Putter.
