IT has become something of a ritual and probably one that doesn’t do much for my credibility as a golf journalist.

Every two years, as the Ryder Cup qualification process is underway, the editor calls me up and suggests that I should predict who I think will be in the next European Ryder Cup side. Every two years I give it a go with what could best be described as a modicum of success. 

Last time, I managed to guess eight out of 12 which I suspect is about par for the course. 

This year it might be a bit more difficult as I strongly suspect European golf is entering a period of change.

I should stress right from the start that such guesswork is never easy. Nevertheless, there are certain places where you can look for guidance and the first of those is the official world ranking.

A top-50 spot on the world ranking is hugely important for Ryder Cup qualification because it gets you into big-money events like the Majors and the WGC events. 

So, on that basis, the likes of Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer, Rory McIlroy, Graeme McDowell, Paul Casey, Ian Poulter, Robert Karlsson, Francesco Molinari, Alvaro Quiros, Martin Laird, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Matteo Manassero, Darren Clarke and Justin Rose might all reasonably expect to have a good chance. 

However, it doesn’t always work out like that, as Casey and Rose found to their cost last time.

I think we can take for granted that – saving injury – Donald, Westwood, Kaymer, McIlroy and McDowell will all make it and I suspect Laird will earn a place now that he has indicated he will join the European Tour for the first time.

That settles six out of the 12 spots and I would anticipate that both Manassero and another rising star, Alex Noren, a two-time winner this season, will also be making the trip to Medinah, leaving four places to fill.

It is a measure of the strength in depth of European golf right now that I could probably list 15 or 20 players who could fill the last four places. 

The secret is identifying the best of them because, if the last match proved anything, it is that we will need our best team on parade if we are to retain the trophy on American soil.

A few years ago, I would have been looking to Miguel Angel Jimenez to do a job for the team, but 2012 might well be one match too far for the popular Spaniard. 

Likewise, the out-of-sorts Casey and Harrington have much to do to gain an automatic place and I’m not sure about Rose either, given his previous reluctance to alter his schedule in order to battle his way into the side.

I said earlier that I anticipate changes this time round and another of those will be the welcome return of Sergio Garcia, who is still not the player he was when he pushed Tiger Woods all the way at the 1999 PGA Championship but is certainly putting better and also appears to have rediscovered at least some of the joie de vivre which characterised his game for so long.

That leaves just three spots and here I am going to stick my neck out and go for the struggling Ian Poulter, Francesco Molinari and Darren Clarke.

Poulter is by no means firing on all cylinders at the moment but deserves a pick because of his fine performances in the last two matches, in which he won both his singles and played a useful role as unofficial team cheerleader. 

Molinari struggled a bit at Celtic Manor but will be much better for the experience while Clarke has been rejuvenated by his success at the Open and will have to set aside any notion of becoming a Ryder Cup captain for the time being at least.

So, there you have it. It will be a cosmopolitan side comprising seven members of last year’s team, two returnees and three rookies. Then again, it might not.