Betting tips: Will Tiger Woods make the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open?

Tiger Woods surprised me at the Hero World Challenge. It wasn’t he was able to compete – he wouldn’t have returned if he’d felt he was going to embarrass himself – it was that he contended at all.

It was a relaxed tournament and not the hardest of course set-ups but Woods’ 24 birdies were more than anyone else in a star-studded field. His putting, in particular, looked very solid and some of the old magic is clearly still there.

Bear in mind, too, that he’d been ill in the run up to the event and unable to put in the practise he’d have wished.

Now he’s had another six weeks to further polish his game and is playing a Torrey Pines complex he absolutely adores.

He’s won so many times there – from the World Junior Champs in 1991 to this title in 2013.

On the other hand, the last time he played (2015), he withdrew complaining about his glutes and suffering from an alarming case of the chipping yips. That was after he failed to make the final round 12 months earlier.

Torrey Pines ranked as the second toughest PGA Tour course last year. If Woods hasn’t found a way to avoid the six doubles he suffered at the Hero, it could be a long two days.

It’s 8/15 Tiger plays the weekend and 11/8 he goes home. Neither eventuality would surprise me but, at the price, I’m leaning towards him not making the weekend.

Woods is bound to make some mistakes. It’s only his second start back and surely he will still be ring rusty. Errors at Torrey Pines get severely punished.

It’s a marginal call. But Woods is teeing it up in four of the next five events is and off to Dubai next week. It might not be the worst thing for him to ease his way back in.

Given how tight it might be for him to make the cut, you can imagine I’ll be steering well clear of outright odds as short as 28/1.

In that market, I’ll be having a little each-way punt on JB Holmes at 50/1.

He’s appearing for the first time this year but has finished T6 and T2 at Torrey Pines the last two years. He clearly gets on with the course following a difficult introduction.

I normally steer clear of defending champions but Brandt Snedeker’s price of 30/1 seems high given his tendency to play well here.

I’ve also got eyes for Justin Rose (33/1) on the back of his Sony Open display. That’s tempered by a very ordinary course record (he’s missed the last two cuts). It’ll be small stakes on the Englishman.